The influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index on hospital admissions through diseases of the circulatory system in Lisbon, Portugal

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• 作者：Ricardo Almendra ; Paula Santana…
• 关键词：North Atlantic Oscillation ; Circulatory system diseases ; Air pollution ; Hospital admissions
• 刊名：International Journal of Biometeorology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：61
• 期：2
• 页码：325-333
• 全文大小：876KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment, general; Biological and Medical Physics, Biophysics; Meteorology; Animal Physiology; Plant Physiology; Environmental Health;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-1254
• 卷排序：61

文摘

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), meteorological variables, air pollutants, and hospital admissions due to diseases of circulatory systems in Lisbon (Portugal) during winter months (2003–2012). This paper is one of the few studies analyzing the impact of NAO on health through its influence on thermal stress and air pollution and is the first to be conducted in Lisbon. This study uses meteorological data (synthetized into a thermal comfort index), air pollutant metrics, and the NAO index (all clustered in 10-day cycles to overcome daily variability of the NAO index). The relationship between morbidity, thermal comfort index, NAO index, and air pollutants was explored through several linear models adjusted to seasonality through a periodic function. The possible indirect effect between the NAO index and hospital admissions was tested, assuming that NAO (independent variable) is affecting hospital admissions (outcome variable) through thermal discomfort and/or pollution levels (tested as individual mediators). This test was conducted through causal mediation analysis and adjusted for seasonal variation. The results from this study suggest a possible indirect relationship between NAO index and hospital admissions. Although NAO is not significantly associated with hospital admissions, it is significantly associated with CO, PM_2.5, NO, and SO₂ levels, which in turn increase the probability of hospitalization. The discomfort index (built with temperature and relative humidity) is significantly associated with hospital admissions, but its variability is not explained by the NAO index. This study highlights the impacts of the atmospheric circulation patterns on health. Furthermore, understanding the influence of the atmospheric circulation patterns can support the improvement of the existing contingency plans.