Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke, a Policy Simulation Model

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• 作者：David Levy ; Cristin Fergus ; Lindsey Rudov ; Iben McCormick-Ricket…
• 关键词：SimSmoke Model ; Policy Simulation Model ; Tobacco Control Policies ; Louisiana Tobacco Control
• 刊名：Prevention Science
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：17
• 期：2
• 页码：199-207
• 全文大小：471 KB
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• 作者单位：David Levy (1)
  Cristin Fergus (2)
  Lindsey Rudov (3)
  Iben McCormick-Ricket (3)
  Thomas Carton (3)
  
  1. Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, 3300 Whitehaven St., NW, Suite 4100, Washington, DC, 20007, USA
  2. Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1440 Canal Street, New Orleans, LA, 70112, USA
  3. Division of Evaluation and Research, Louisiana Public Health Institute, 1515 Poydras Street, Suite 1200, New Orleans, LA, 70112, USA
  
• 刊物主题：Public Health; Health Psychology; Child and School Psychology;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1573-6695

文摘

Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax. Keywords SimSmoke Model Policy Simulation Model Tobacco Control Policies Louisiana Tobacco Control