Prediction of northern summer low-frequency circulation using a high-order vector auto-regressive model

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• 作者：Lei Wang ; Mingfang Ting ; David Chapman ; Dong Eun Lee ; Naomi Henderson…
• 关键词：Low frequency variability ; Intraseasonal predictability ; Madden–Julian oscillation ; Circumglobal wave train
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：3-4
• 页码：693-709
• 全文大小：3,155 KB
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• 作者单位：Lei Wang (1)
  Mingfang Ting (1)
  David Chapman (1)
  Dong Eun Lee (1)
  Naomi Henderson (1)
  Xiaojun Yuan (1)
  
  1. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

A data-driven, high-order vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is evaluated for predicting the Northern Hemisphere summer time (May through September) low frequency (>10 days or so) variability. The VAR model is suitable for linear stationary time series, similar to the commonly used linear inverse model (LIM), with additional temporal information incorporated to improve forecast skill. The intraseasonal forecast skill of the 250/750 hPa streamfunction is investigated using observational data since 1979, which shows significant improvements in high-order VAR models than the first-order model LIM. Furthermore, the tropical diabatic heating is found to significantly improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric low frequency circulation when included in the VAR model. The forecast skill of 250 hPa streamfunction at Arabian Peninsula is particularly enhanced for up to 5 weeks lead-time through circumglobal wave propagation associated with the persistent tropical eastern Pacific and equatorial Atlantic heating anomalies and the intraseasonal evolution of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific heating anomalies. Keywords Low frequency variability Intraseasonal predictability Madden–Julian oscillation Circumglobal wave train