Risk reduction in a project portfolio

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• 作者：Dujuan Guan ; Peng Guo ; Keith W. Hipel…
• 关键词：Project portfolio ; integrated risk ; set theory ; Bayesian network ; risk assessment
• 刊名：Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：26
• 期：1
• 页码：3-22
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Engineering
• 刊物主题：Complexity; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Operation Research/Decision Theory;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1861-9576
• 卷排序：26

文摘

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.