Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

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• 作者：Jonathan Rizzi ; Valentina Gallina ; Silvia Torresan ; Andrea Critto…
• 关键词：Climate change ; Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ; Geographic Information System ; Regional Risk Assessment ; Coastal zones
• 刊名：Sustainability Science
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：11
• 期：3
• 页码：455-476
• 全文大小：2,585 KB
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• 作者单位：Jonathan Rizzi (1) (2)
  Valentina Gallina (2)
  Silvia Torresan (1)
  Andrea Critto (1) (2)
  Slim Gana (3)
  Antonio Marcomini (1) (2)
  
  1. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Via Augusto Imperatore, 16, 73100, Lecce, Italy
  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Cà Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172, Venezia Mestre, Italy
  3. SAROST S.A, Marine Engineering and Geosciences Division, Immeuble Saadi, Tour EF, El Menzah IV, 1082, Tunis, Tunisia
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Environmental Management
  Climate Change
  Environmental Economics
  Landscape Ecology
  Public Health
  
• 出版者：Springer Japan
• ISSN：1862-4057

文摘

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.