Hydrologic Modelling Calibration for Operational Flood Forecasting

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• 作者：Juliana Mendes ; Rodrigo Maia
• 关键词：Hydrologic modelling ; Calibration and verification ; Accuracy ; Runoff ; Flood forecasting
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：15
• 页码：5671-5685
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Hydrogeology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Civil Engineering; Environment, general;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650
• 卷排序：30

文摘

Runoff prediction in flood forecasting depends on the use of hydrological simulation models and on the input of accurate precipitation forecasts. Reliability of predictions thus obtained hinges on proper calibration of the model. Moreover, when the model is intended to be used systematically in operational forecasting of streamflows, the calibration process must take into account the variation of the model parameters over time, namely in response to changing weather and hydrological conditions in the basin. The goal of the study was to build a process to adjust, on a daily basis, the simulation model parameters to the current hydrological conditions of the river basin, in order for the model to be run operationally for prediction of the streamflow for the next 10-days period, and, thereby, to forecast the occurrence of flood events. Towards this end, hydrological simulations using the HEC-HMS model were performed, using a 3 h period time step. The present communication focuses on the hydrological model calibration and verification processes and on the evaluation of forecasts’ accuracy. The procedure was applied to a part of the largest (full) Portuguese river basin, the Mondego river basin, corresponding to the Aguieira dam section watershed, which comprises an area of 3070 km2. Four wet periods, associated with the occurrence of flooding, were selected for the calibration and verification of the model, by adjustment of the model parameters. The results of the study aim to define the optimal calibration parameters values to model the observed streamflow for various hydro-meteorological states, thus enabling adequate prediction of flow in flooding situations and proper application of the model in operational flood forecasting.