Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy

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• 作者：L Benini ; M Antonellini ; M Laghi ; P. N. Mollema
• 关键词：Freshwater resources management ; Saltwater Intrusion vulnerability ; Land use scenarios ; Coastal drainage basins ; Climate change ; Decision support tool
• 刊名：Water Resources Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：January 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：2
• 页码：731-745
• 全文大小：1,226 KB
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• 作者单位：L Benini (1)
  M Antonellini (2)
  M Laghi (2)
  P. N. Mollema (2)
  
  1. Environmental Management Research Group, Interdepartmental Center for Ressearch in Environmental Science (CIRSA), University of Bologna, via Sant’Alberto 163, Ravenna, 48123, Italy
  2. Integrated Geoscience Research Group (IGRG), University of Bologna, Sant’Alberto 163, Ravenna, 48123, Italy
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Civil Engineering
  Environment
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1650

文摘

The joint effect of changes in climate and land use on the future availability of water resources was assessed under the SRES A1B and A2 climate scenarios as well as five land use scenarios for the 2080–2100 time-frame in an Italian coastal watershed. The study area is a small coastal polder (100 km2) characterized by irrigated agriculture, urban expansion, drainage, quarrying and sensitivity to salt-water intrusion. The hydroclimatic budget and the GALDIT index have been computed for assessing water resources availability and groundwater vulnerability to salinization, respectively. The methodology developed is integrated into a tool based on Excel™, which supported the development of scenarios in participatory processes. The conclusions emerged from the analysis are the following: (1) climate change is more effective than land use change in controlling future freshwater availability and amplifies the imbalance between winter surplus and summer deficits, (2) freshwater availability in the summer will likely be affected by an increase in evaporation from open water surfaces due to increased temperature, whereas winter surplus would increase, (3) the vulnerability of the coastal aquifer to salinization will probably moderately increase but an inherent limitation of the GALDIT index to land use change parameters prevents a sound assessment. Strategies that may be proposed to administrators and stakeholders are based on increasing storage of seasonal water surplus. Keywords Freshwater resources management Saltwater Intrusion vulnerability Land use scenarios Coastal drainage basins Climate change Decision support tool