Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis

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• 作者：Rosa Sobradelo ; Joan Martí ; Christopher Kilburn ; Carmen López
• 关键词：Decision theory ; Decision ; making ; Volcanic crises ; Bayesian analysis ; Communicating probabilities ; Expected losses ; El Hierro
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：76
• 期：2
• 页码：979-998
• 全文大小：1,232 KB
• 参考文献：1. Aspinall, W Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. Special Publication of IAVCEI. In: Mader, HM eds. (2006) Statistics in volcanology. Geological Society of London, London, pp. 15-30
  2. Becerril L, Bartolini S, Sobradelo R, Martí J, Morales J, Galindo I (2014) Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:1853-870
  3. Becerril L, Cappello A, Galindo I, Neri M, Del-Negro C (2013) Spatial probability distribution of future volcanic eruptions at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain). J Volcanol Geotherm Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.005
  4. Berger, J (2010) Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer, New York
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  11. Guillou, H, Carracedo, J, Perez-Torrado, F, Rodriguez-Badiola, E (1996) K-Ar ages and magnetic stratigraphy of a hotspot-induced, fast grown oceanic island: El Hierro, Canary Islands. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 73: pp. 141-155 CrossRef
  12. Ibánez, J, De-Angelis, S, Diaz-Moreno, A, Hernández, P, Alguacil, G, Posadas, A, Pérez, N (2012) Insights into the 2011-012 submarine eruption off the coast of El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain) from statistical analyses of earthquake activity. Geophys J Int 191: pp. 659-670 CrossRef
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  16. Martí, J, Felpeto, A (2010) Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility: application to Tenerife Island (Canary Islands). J Volcanol Geotherm Res 195: pp. 69-77 CrossRef
  17. Martí J, Pinel V, López C, Geyer A, Abella R, Tárraga M, Blanco M, Castro A, Rodríguez C (2013) Causes and mechanisms of the 2011-012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) submarine eruption. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 118. doi:10.1002/jgrb.50087
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial for designing effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption, and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision-makers. Here, we present a new model Bayesian Decision Model (BADEMO) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision-makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision-makers.