Distribution characteristics of the intensity and extreme intensity of tropical cyclones influencing China

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• 作者：Yongguang Zheng ; Jiong Chen ; Zuyu Tao
• 关键词：tropical cyclone ; intensity ; extreme ; Gumbel distribution
• 刊名：Journal of Meteorological Research
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：June 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：28
• 期：3
• 页码：393-406
• 全文大小：3,275 KB
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• 作者单位：Yongguang Zheng (1)
  Jiong Chen (1)
  Zuyu Tao (2)
  
  1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081, China
  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
  
• 刊物类别：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Atmospheric Protection/Air
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution;
• 出版者：The Chinese Meteorological Society
• ISSN：2198-0934

文摘

To address the deficiency of climatological research on tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with different intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50- and 100-yr return-period TCs with different intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with different intensities exert distinctive effects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these different regions also differ. Super and severe typhoons mainly influence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities influence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity (PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods influencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over different regions of China. Key words tropical cyclone intensity extreme Gumbel distribution