Holocene Slip Rate for the Western Segm
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摘要

The western segment of the Castle Mountain fault poses a significant seismic hazard to the most populated region of south-central Alaska. We identify a previously unrecognized margin of a postglacial outwash channel that is offset right laterally 36 ± 4 m across the western segment of the Castle Mountain fault. This offset occurred after glaciers withdrew from the lowland 11,300–15,380 cal yr lass="sc">b.p. and after outwash channel margins were cut and stabilized 11,210–13,470 cal yr lass="sc">b.p. Using these ages and the measured separation, we obtain a maximum slip rate of 3.0 ± 0.6 mm yr−1 and a minimum slip rate of 2.8 ± 0.7 mm yr−1. These are the first lateral slip rates for the Castle Mountain fault established by a field measurement. Based on timing of the most recent earthquake, 670 ± 60 yr lass="sc">b.p., the Castle Mountain fault could have accumulated an average single-event slip of about 1.9 m (extremes range from 1.3 to 2.6 m). The fault consists of two segments; a surface-rupturing earthquake likely will be limited to the 62-km-long western segment. Area-magnitude regression calculations suggest that such an earthquake on the western Castle Mountain fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.9 to 7.3.

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