Establishing confidence in marine forecast systems: The design of a high fidelity marine forecast model for the NY/NJ harbor estuary and its adjoining coastal waters.
详细信息
文摘
A new high-resolution OFS (Operational Forecast System) for the NY/NJ Harbor estuary, NJ coast, Long Island Sound, and their coastal ocean has been developed. It is shown that sufficiently high grid resolution controls the ability of the 3rd generation New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System (NYHOPS v3) in representing the mostly tidal (85% of the total water level variance) hydrodynamics within the NY/NJ Harbor region. The new hydrodynamic model includes updated physics (waves and wave-boundary-layer friction, wetting and drying, 2D atmospheric heat fluxes), and inputs (hydrology, meteorology, and the steric effect). It is shown that the forecast forcing provided to the NYHOPS v3 model from regional meteorological and hydrological models is enough to create meaningful 48hr forecasts of the tidal residual marine hydrodynamic response, with longer forecasts being of questionable validity and usefulness. The extensively validated NYHOPS v3 OFS has been operational since June 2009, with 100% reliability, i.e. providing automated forecasts and nowcasts without service interruption, a significant improvement from prior system versions.