Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance.
详细信息
- 作者：Mendel ; Joshua Brock.
- 学历：Ph.D.
- 年：2013
- 导师：Shleifer, Andrei,eadvisorLaibson, Davidecommittee memberFarhi, Emmanuelecommittee member
- 毕业院校：Harvard University
- Department：Economics
- ISBN：9781303186202
- CBH：3567000
- Country：USA
- 语种：English
- FileSize：2503769
- Pages：121
文摘
The Local Multiplier: Theory and Evidence. I show that 1) the policy-relevant "global multiplier" can be written as the sum of a spending component and a taxation component, all scaled up by spillover effects, 2) the "local multiplier" is exactly the spending component, and 3) if trade is anonymous, the local effects of a shock to federal government purchases in a county will be identical to the effects of a shock to consumer demand for the exports of that locality. I estimate a bound for the local multiplier and consider spillover effects to contiguous counties. I find that a shock of $48,000 creates at least one job-year locally. Analysis at a monthly frequency suggests that these jobs are more persistent than previously estimated. Evidence of higher multipliers in recessions is mixed. Chasing Noise. We present a simple model in which rational but uninformed traders occasionally chase noise as if it were information, thereby amplifying sentiment shocks and moving prices away from fundamental values. In the model, noise traders can have an impact on market equilibrium disproportionate to their size in the market. The model offers a partial explanation for the surprisingly low market price of financial risk in the spring of 2007. Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. We make the case that quasi- rational models deserve greater attention. We begin by discussing a large body of empirical evidence which suggests that beliefs systematically deviate from perfect rationality. Much of the evidence that beliefs systematically deviate from perfect rationality. Much of the evidence implies that economic agents tend to form forecasts that are excessively influenced by recent changesin other words, some form of extrapolation bias. We then present a parsimonious quasi-rational model that we call natural expectations, which falls between rational expectations and nave) intuitive expectations. Intuitive expectations are formed by running growth regressions with a limited set of right-hand-side variables. As we will see, this leads to excessively extrapolative beliefs in certain classes of environments.