Managing black swan uncertainty: A grounded theory examination of portfolio managers' assessment of unknown risk.
详细信息
文摘
The primary purpose of this qualitative,grounded theory research was to examine complexity,chaos,and catastrophe theories in connection with black swan risk identification and assessment and portfolio management that would determine areas where theory could be expanded to account for the actual practices of portfolio/project managers. As a result of interview data collected from a total of ten project and portfolio managers in oil and gas,medical,and aerospace industries,five key findings emerged. Relationships between the findings suggest that as the degree of complexity increases in a system,the diversity and involvement of emerging technology and risk experts must also increase. In addition,formal processes like industry regulations,management of change,and phased gated reviews tend to drive consistency in risk identification and assessment practices. The research data indicates that the dependency on these organizational characteristics establishes and sustains a firms culture for how its leaders pursue black swan risk identification and assessment. The findings led to enhancements in complexity,chaos,and catastrophe theories. The study provided researchers with rationale to pursue additional qualitative or mixed method studies regarding the relationships between complexity science theories,risk management,and portfolio management. In addition,it provided portfolio and project practitioners with justification to identify and assess the low likelihood,unknown catastrophic risks in emerging technology complex systems using qualitative methods. Although the focus on this research was on complex systems involving new technology,complex systems that incur significant or recurring changes are also targets for future research.