Internationalization's Discontents: Domestic Coalitions and the Future of China's Peaceful Rise.
详细信息
文摘
What will a rising China do with its power? Beijings long-term international orientation is crucial to the future stabilities of the Asia-Pacific region and the broader international system. Each of the major International Relations theories can generate a hypothesis of confrontation and forecast pessimistic outcome of Chinas international behavior. This dissertation systematically examines the patterns of sources of change in the PRCs international orientation since 1949. The formation of states preferences has long been explored by theories of International Political Economy. However,this literature is underrepresented in the field. This dissertation builds on a theoretical framework of coalition analysis and argues that Chinas future intentions will depend upon the profile and strength of its ruling coalition. It compares variations in Chinas approach to the international order since 1949 according to four ideal types of domestic ruling coalition vis-a-vis profile and strength: internationalist,insular,cohesive,and compromised,across periods leading to four categories of international orientation: revision,isolation,integration,and adaptation. It also specifies how ruling coalitions evolve through three stages: inception,degeneration,and regeneration. Relying archival work in both English and Chinese language sources,this dissertation traces the development of the CCP ruling coalition under the four generations of Chinese leadership from Mao Zedong,Deng Xiaoping,Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao. Each case is examined along the following dimensions: the major coalitional actors and their preferences regarding Chinas internationalization,the challenges that each coalitional leader faced and the political strategies he employed to override opponents,and the impact of the consequences of such strategies on the succeeding leader. This dissertation finds that even in a one-party-dominant regime like Chinas,leaders and groups do operate within the mechanisms of coalition building and competition. Grand strategy integrates economic development and leaders political survival that are at the very heart of developing nations with authoritarian political systems. This foundation then links Chinas development plan,domestic politics,and foreign policy strategy. This dissertation concludes that the institutional and ideological constraints within which Chinese leaders make their decisions will dictate the contours of Chinas future international course.