The main drivers of the air-sea flux variability were identified as being temperature, net ecosystem production and pH. The eutrophication due to high riverine nutrient inputs during the 1980s had no significant effect on the air-sea flux of CO2 because in contrast to net primary production, net ecosystem production did not respond to the period of higher phosphate input. The increase of sea surface temperature of 0.027聽掳C聽yr鈭? over the simulation period and the pH decline of 0.002聽yr鈭? led to a decline of the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the North Sea of about 30%in the last decade of the simulation period. A special feature occurred in the year 1996, where a cold sea surface temperature anomaly led to an additional (physical) uptake of atmospheric CO2 and corresponded with a low primary and net ecosystem production, which on the other hand led to less biologically induced uptake of CO2.
Our results indicate an ongoing decline of the uptake capacity for atmospheric carbon dioxide of the North Sea for future scenarios.