A group of 365 women with normal Pap smear and negative or positive high-risk Hybrid Capture II test were prospectively followed-up for 24 months at Campinas and São Paulo (Brazil). The incidence rate (IR) and risk ratio (RR and 95%CI) of developing cytological or histological abnormality during the follow-up was calculated for HPV-negative and HPV-positive women.
During the 12-month follow-up, women HPV-positive at baseline had developed a significantly higher rate of incident LSIL (IR = 3.5%, RR = 1.4; 95%CI 1.1–1.7) and HSIL (IR = 0.7%, RR = 1.5; 95%CI 1.4–1.7) abnormality. For HSIL, the IR increased to 2.1%and the RR increased to 1.7 (95%CI 1.5–1.9) among those followed for 24 months. Similarly, women with positive HPV tests were at a higher risk of developing CIN 2–3 (IR = 2.6%, RR = 1.5; 95%CI 1.4–1.6) during the first 12 months of follow-up, and for those followed for 24 months, this RR increased further to 1.7 (95%CI 1.5–1.9) although the IR was 0.7%.
Oncogenic HPV infections comprise a significant risk factor for incident cervical abnormalities, and HPV test is a useful adjunct to cytology in detecting the high-risk patients among baseline PAP smear-negative women.