Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK

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• 作者：Thanaset Chevapatrakul^a ; Tae-Hwan Kim^b ; Paul Mizen^c ; ^{paul.mizen@nottingham.ac.uk}
• 关键词：E31 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58
• 刊名：Journal of Macroeconomics
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：73_01640704
• 类别：eco
• 出版时间：June, 2012
• 卷：34
• 期：2
• 页码：326-341
• 文件大小：471 K

摘要

This paper uses a modified New Keynesian framework to consider the use of monetary information in making monetary policy decisions. We add monetary indicators derived from theoretical models to conventional economic variables in an instrument rule and estimate the equations using euroarea and UK data recognizing that interest rates are set discretely. There is an improvement in the ability to predict changes in interest rates when we introduce monetary indicators which is robust to alternative model specifications. This result adds to a growing literature on the role of monetary indicators showing that this information helps predict interest rate decisions as well as inflation.