Forecasting the reliability of wind-energy systems: A new approach using the RL technique
- 作者：Nikhil Chaudhry ; nikhil.chaudhry@dal.ca ; Larry Hughes
- 关键词：Energy security ; Wind-energy system ; Variable wind output ; Load uncertainty ; Probabilistic simulation ; Forecasting reliability
- 刊名：Applied Energy
- 出版年：2012
- 期刊代码：2_03062619
- 类别：pw
- 出版时间：August, 2012
- 卷：96
- 期：Complete
- 页码：422-430
- 文件大小：620 K
摘要
Two of the most significant challenges in the 21st century will be to improve energy security and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy consumption. A co-beneficial solution to these challenges is seen as increasing the use of renewable energy for the production of electricity. Some renewable sources, such as wind are often presented as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; however, since wind鈥檚 variability increases uncertainty and risk in expected generation, it can be detrimental to energy security. One of the ways in which wind鈥檚 contribution to a jurisdiction鈥檚 energy security and greenhouse gas reduction strategies can be improved is to employ a forecasting method that can help reduce risks. This paper proposes a method that applies risk and reliability analysis techniques to obtain the most-likely RL (Resistance-Load) scenario using a set of historical data for wind-supply or generation and load. RL estimates the reliability of a wind-energy system by simulating an anticipated resistance (the electrical generation) attempting to meet a load (the electricity demand) for a future year. The method is demonstrated through a case study and its results are compared with real-time data from a 12 MW wind farm to prove its efficacy.