151 participants estimated the probability of being in car-accident related situations, watched a movie of a car accident victim, and then completed a measure of data-driven processing during the movie. One week later, participants re-estimated the probabilities, and completed measures of reexperiencing symptoms and symptom appraisals/reactions.
Path analysis revealed that higher pre-existing probability estimates predicted greater data-driven processing which was associated with negative appraisals and responses to intrusions. Furthermore, lower pre-existing probability estimates and negative responses to intrusions were both associated with a greater change in probability estimates. Reexperiencing symptoms were predicted by negative responses to intrusions and, to a lesser degree, by greater changes in probability estimates.
The undergraduate student sample may not be representative of the general public. The reexperiencing symptoms are less severe than what would be found in a trauma sample.
Threat estimates present both a vulnerability and a consequence of exposure to a distressing event. Furthermore, changes in these estimates are associated with cognitive processes implicated in PTSD.