Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods

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• 作者：Giuliano Di Baldassarre^a ; ^{g.dibaldassarre@unesco-ihe.org} ; Francesco Laio^b ; Alberto Montanari^c
• 关键词：Statistical hydrology ; Design flood ; Observation uncertainty ; Rating curve ; Flood risk
• 刊名：Physics and Chemistry of the Earth ; Parts A/B/C
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：96_14747065
• 类别：ear
• 出版时间：2012
• 卷：42-44
• 期：Complete
• 页码：85-90
• 文件大小：291 K

摘要

This study investigates the uncertainty in the estimation of the design flood induced by errors in flood data. We initially describe and critically discuss the main sources of uncertainty affecting river discharge data, when they are derived using stage-discharge rating curves. Then, different error structures are used to investigate the effects of flood data errors on design flood estimation. Annual maxima values of river discharge observed on the Po River (Italy) at Pontelagoscuro are used as an example. The study demonstrates that observation errors may have a significant impact on the uncertainty of design floods, especially when the rating curve is affected by systematic errors.