Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions
- 作者：Wayne Leighty ; WayneLeighty@gmail.com ; Joan M. Ogden jmogden@ucdavis.edu ; Christopher Yang ccyang@ucdavis.edu
- 关键词：Alternative fuels ; Advanced vehicles ; Low-carbon future
- 刊名：Energy Policy
- 出版年：2012
- 期刊代码：15_03014215
- 类别：pw
- 出版时间：May, 2012
- 卷：44
- 期：Complete
- 页码：52-67
- 文件大小：1117 K
摘要
California鈥檚 target for reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is 80%below 1990 levels by 2050. We develop transition scenarios for meeting this goal in California鈥檚 transportation sector, with focus on light-duty vehicles (LDVs). We explore four questions: (1) what options are available to reduce transportation sector GHG emissions 80%below 1990 levels by 2050; (2) how rapidly would transitions in LDV markets, fuels, and travel behaviors need to occur over the next 40 years; (3) how do intermediate policy goals relate to different transition pathways; (4) how would rates of technological change and market adoption between 2010 and 2050 impact cumulative GHG emissions?
We develop four LDV transition scenarios to meet the 80in50 target through a combination of travel demand reduction, fuel economy improvements, and low-carbon fuel supply, subject to restrictions on trajectories of technological change, potential market adoption of new vehicles and fuels, and resource availability.
These scenarios exhibit several common themes: electrification of LDVs, rapid improvements in vehicle efficiency, and future fuels with less than half the carbon intensity of current gasoline and diesel. Availability of low-carbon biofuels and the level of travel demand reduction are 鈥渟wing factors鈥?that influence the degree of LDV electrification required.