We estimated that the 100·5 million BCG vaccinations given to infants in 2002 will have prevented 29a0;729 cases of tuberculous meningitis (5th–95th centiles, 24a0;063–36a0;192) in children during their first 5 years of life, or one case for every 3435 vaccinations (2771–4177), and 11a0;486 cases of miliary tuberculosis (7304–16a0;280), or one case for every 9314 vaccinations (6172–13a0;729). The numbers of cases prevented would be highest in South East Asia (46%), sub-Saharan Africa (27%), the western Pacific region (15%), and where the risk of tuberculosis infection and vaccine coverage are also highest. At US$2–3 per dose, BCG vaccination costs US$206 (150–272) per year of healthy life gained.
BCG vaccination is a highly cost-effective intervention against severe childhood tuberculosis; it should be retained in high-incidence countries as a strategy to supplement the chemotherapy of active tuberculosis.
Statistically, the evidence is of such a nature that it cannot be taken as establishing the value of BCG vaccination. Practically, and taken in conjunction with the strictly controlled Medical Research Council Trial, the evidence fully justifies the use of BCG in children about to leave school in Birmingham and similar communities.
Financially, the cost BCG vaccination in Birmingham is less (and probably much less) than the estimated cost of dealing with the cases prevented.
Assessing the impact of different BCG vaccination strategies on severe childhood TB in low-intermediate prevalence settings