Joint distribution model for prediction of hurricane wind speed and size

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• 作者：Yue Wang^a ; ¹ ; ^{wangy20@rpi.edu} ; David V. Rosowsky^a ; ^b ; ^{rosowd@rpi.edu}
• 关键词：Hazard ; Risk ; Hurricane ; Wind speed ; Storm size ; Simulation ; Performance-based engineering
• 刊名：Structural Safety
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：168_01674730
• 类别：et
• 出版时间：March, 2012
• 卷：35
• 期：Complete
• 页码：40-51
• 文件大小：2856 K

摘要

This paper suggests a methodology for characterizing the joint distribution of hurricane intensity (maximum wind speed) and size (radius of maximum winds). Such a model represents an extension of traditional wind hazard models by including joint information on the critical spatial dimension. Typically, the hurricane hazard is described in terms of maximum wind speed V_max (at the eye-wall), since damage descriptors associated with intensity scales (e.g., the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and collateral hazards (e.g., hurricane surge) are related most often to maximum wind speed. However, recent studies have shed light on the importance of storm size (i.e., radius of maximum wind, R_max) in describing the hurricane wind field and thus the spatial extent of potential damage. The large losses from several recent hurricanes underscore the need for better understanding the impact of storm size on damage. To that end, we seek to develop event parameter combinations (e.g., V_max and R_max) that define 鈥渃haracteristic鈥?risk-consistent hurricanes in one particular geographic region. A simulation framework is developed to generate 10,000 years of simulated hurricane events and a synthetic hurricane wind speed database for the state of Texas, using state-of-the-art hurricane modeling techniques and information extracted from historical hurricane data. The resulting 10,000 years database, which includes information developed for every zip-code in Texas, includes time of hurricane passage, maximum gradient wind speed and surface wind speed. Using this simulation framework, selected parameters (i.e., intensity and size parameters) are recorded for each hurricane at the time of landfall along the Texas coast. Using a hurricane decay model specifically calibrated for this location, parameters V_max and R_max at inland locations also are recorded. The critical values of V_max and R_max are then selected to jointly describe the intensity and spatial extent of hurricanes and the joint histogram is developed. Finally, these variables are statistically characterized and a suite of the characteristic V_max and R_max combinations corresponding to certain hazard levels are identified. The proposed methodology can be used to develop characteristic hurricane hazard definitions (and event parameter combinations corresponding to specific hazard levels) for use in performance-based engineering applications.