Trends and cycles of the internet evolution and worldwide impacts

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• 作者：Luiz C.M. Miranda^a ; ^{lcmm2k7@gmail.com}  ; [Author Vitae] ; Carlos A.S. Lima^b  ; [Author Vitae]
• 关键词：Information and communication technologies ; World GDP ; Information development index ; Functional and operational information development indices ; Internet evolution ; Internet socio-economic impacts ; Multi-logistic modeling ; Global digital inequality
• 刊名：Technological Forecasting and Social Change
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：172_00401625
• 类别：et
• 出版时间：May, 2012
• 卷：79
• 期：4
• 页码：744-765
• 文件大小：1204 K

摘要

In this paper we present a quantitative analysis of the evolution of some Internet and ICT evolution indicators. It focuses on the number of Internet hosts, the Internet penetration index, the ICT development index and the software/protocols development. In addition, we analyzed the series of most impacting events building up the Internet along the last fifty years. These analyses were carried out using the multi-logistic procedure recently proposed by the authors. Our results for hosts counting, penetration index and software/protocols development are compatible with the onset of some radical changes in the Internet technology to be currently underway and we forecast new growth rate peaks to occur by 2015. The software/protocols were found to having been powered by bursts of creativity with periods of the order of the Kuznets and Kondratiev economic cycles. Similar conclusions were drawn from the series of main events building up the Internet. Despite the clear signs of worldwide improvement in the ICT infrastructure and usage between 2002 and 2007 obtained from the ICT development index, its cross-correlation with the human development index (HDI) revealed the presence of a group of countries whose improvements in the operational ICT index are disconnected from their corresponding HDI improvements.