Economic effects of climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

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• 作者：Qiang Jiang ; ^{Qiang.Jiang@anu.edu.au} ; R. Quentin Grafton¹ ; ^{quentin.grafton@anu.edu.au}
• 关键词：Climate change ; Irrigated agriculture ; Water trading
• 刊名：Agricultural Systems
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：4_0308521x
• 类别：abs
• 出版时间：July, 2012
• 卷：110
• 期：Complete
• 页码：10-16
• 文件大小：185 K

摘要

This study uses a hydro-economic model to examine the role of water trading, and the economic impacts of climate change and reduced surface water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin. The results show that losses to irrigated agriculture under a median climate change scenario are modest, but under a 鈥榤odified 2030 dry extreme scenario鈥?there would be substantial reductions in water use, irrigated land use and profits. Nevertheless, the Basin-wide proportional economic impacts would be less than the percentage decline in water use. A comparison of model results with and without inter-regional water trade shows that inter-regional water trade in periods of much reduced water availability mitigates the on-farm impacts of climate change. Given that agricultural production in the Basin is likely to be affected by climate change, the development of drought-tolerant crops and cultivars along with learning and extension of best farming practices to reduced water use could also assist irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change within the Basin.