Using subsampling to estimate the strength of handwriting evidence via score-based likelihood ratios

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• 作者：Linda J. Davis^a ; ^{ldavisc@gmu.edu} ; Christopher P. Saunders^b ; ^{csaunde6@gmu.edu} ; Amanda Hepler^b ; ¹ ; ^{abhepler@innovativedecisions.com} ; JoAnn Buscaglia^c ; ^{joann.buscaglia@ic.fbi.gov}
• 关键词：Forensic science ; Likelihood ratio ; Subsampling ; Handwriting evidence ; Statistical evidence evaluation ; Forensic document comparison
• 刊名：Forensic Science International
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：104_03790738
• 类别：med
• 出版时间：10 March, 2012
• 卷：216
• 期：1-3
• 页码：146-157
• 文件大小：552 K

摘要

The likelihood ratio paradigm has been studied as a means for quantifying the strength of evidence for a variety of forensic evidence types. Although the concept of a likelihood ratio as a comparison of the plausibility of evidence under two propositions (or hypotheses) is straightforward, a number of issues arise when one considers how to go about estimating a likelihood ratio. In this paper, we illustrate one possible approach to estimating a likelihood ratio in comparative handwriting analysis. The novelty of our proposed approach relies on generating simulated writing samples from a collection of writing samples from a known source to form a database for estimating the distribution associated with the numerator of a likelihood ratio. We illustrate this approach using documents collected from 432 writers under controlled conditions.