A behavioral model of house prices

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• 作者：Jakob B. Madsen ; ^{Jakob.Madsen@monash.edu}
• 关键词：Behavior of house prices ; Institutions ; Affordability ; Financial innovations ; Tobin's q
• 刊名：Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：36_01672681
• 类别：eco
• 出版时间：April, 2012
• 卷：82
• 期：1
• 页码：21-38
• 文件大小：714 K

摘要

This paper proposes a model in which house prices are determined by economy-wide nominal income and nominal mortgage payments in the short run, while being determined by acquisition costs in the long run. The model, to a large extent, explains the 1995-2007 housing market run-up in the OECD countries by lower mortgage repayments, decreasing nominal interest rates, and increasing nominal GDP, partly induced by a large inflow of migrants. Empirical estimates give strong support for the model and suggest that it explains house prices in the OECD better than alternative models.