Framework for airspace planning and design based on conflict risk assessment: Part 2: Conflict risk assessment model for airspace tactical planning
- 作者：Fedja Netjasov ; f.netjasov@sf.bg.ac.rs
- 关键词：Risk assessment ; Aviation safety ; Air traffic control ; Air traffic management
- 刊名：Transportation Research Part C ; Emerging Technologies
- 出版年：2012
- 期刊代码：177_0968090x
- 类别：et
- 出版时间：October, 2012
- 卷：24
- 期：Complete
- 页码：213-226
- 文件大小：968 K
摘要
This paper presents a conflict risk assessment model developed for the purpose of airspace tactical planning under the framework for airspace planning and design based on conflict risk assessment. The model is intended for comparison of different alternative flight scheduling scenarios for a given airspace sectorisation, from a risk and safety point of view. Conflict risk is assessed using duration and severity of conflict situation in the observed airspace under given circumstances. The model is based on the assumption that conflict between pair of aircraft exists when either horizontal or vertical separation minima are violated. For the purpose of risk assessment at the tactical planning level, a term 鈥渆lementary risk鈥?is introduced. It is defined as the ratio between: (1) the surface limited by minimum separation line and function representing the change of aircraft separation and the surface limited by minimum separation and time moments presenting the conflict duration, and (2) abscissa. The risk is then defined as the ratio between the 鈥渆lementary risk鈥?and the observed period of time. Apart from the risk between aircraft pair, an assessment of the total risk is also considered. A simple illustration of the model application shows that in addition to airspace geometry, the conflict risk between aircraft pair and total conflict risk also depends on traffic demand, aircraft speed, spatial and temporal distribution of traffic in the airspace as well as the applied separation minima. The developed model is intended for use both in en-route as well as terminal airspace and allows for the determination of the most suitable flight schedule which would be balanced with risk and capacity requirements (lower risk, greater capacity).