Emission sources sensitivity study for ground-level ozone and PM_2.5 due to oil sands development using air quality modeling system: Part I- model evaluation for current year base case simulation

详细信息	查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

• 作者：Sunny Cho^a ; ^{sunhee.cho@gov.ab.ca} ; Preston McEachern^a ; Ralph Morris^b ; Tejas Shah^b ; Jeremiah Johnson^b ; Uarporn Nopmongcol^b
• 关键词：MM5/CMAQ ; Oil sands ; Air quality modeling ; PM and ozone ; Model performance evaluation
• 刊名：Atmospheric Environment
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：11_13522310
• 类别：env
• 出版时间：August, 2012
• 卷：55
• 期：Complete
• 页码：533-541
• 文件大小：1720 K

摘要

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling systems were used to simulate emissions and air quality in North Eastern Alberta where a rapid rise in oil sands development has caused air quality concerns over the last decade. The models were run on a 36/12/4聽km domain for the four month period of May through August 2002. A聽model performance evaluation was conducted by comparing the CMAQ model estimates against ambient air quality measurements. In the Alberta oil sands region, the model tended to achieve or nearly achieve ozone model performance goals, albeit with an underestimation bias. The magnitudes of the observed PM_2.5 concentrations were matched by the modeling system, except when the observed PM_2.5 concentrations were influenced by emissions from forest fires in which case the model underestimated the observed PM_2.5 concentrations. The CMAQ-estimated 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations in the oil sands region were below the 65聽ppb Canada Wide Standard (CWS) as well as the 58聽ppb Alberta Management Plan Trigger Level. The highest estimated ozone concentrations occurred near the oil sands development area just north of Fort McMurray with values approaching, but below, the 58聽ppb Management Plan Trigger Level; estimated ozone concentrations are much lower in the farther northern portions of the oil sands region. The acute (i.e., maximum 3-day value) SUM60 vegetative ozone exposure metric was mostly less than 100聽ppb聽h, which is below the threshold of concern for crops. However, just north of Fort McMurray there were small areas where the acute SUM60 metric exceeded the 500-700聽ppb聽h threshold of concern for crops with maximum values in plumes from sources in the oil sands mine area of 鈭?00聽ppb聽h. The maximum chronic (three-month average) SUM60 ozone exposure metric was below the thresholds of concern. The CMAQ-estimated maximum 98th percentile 24-hour average PM_2.5 concentration occurs in the mine area north of Fort McMurray and was below the CWS threshold (30聽渭g聽m^鈭?), however it was above the Alberta Management Plan Trigger Level (20聽渭g聽m^鈭?). The estimated 98th percentile 24- hour average PM_2.5 concentrations were mostly in the 2-6聽渭g聽m^鈭? range with regions of higher PM_2.5 concentrations predicted just north of Fort McMurray in the oil sands development region.