• 作者：E. Pariente-Rodrigo^a ; ^{epsar@telefonica.net} ; A.B. Garcí ; a-Garrido^a ; L.M. Castelao-Bá ; rcena^a ; J. Gonzá ; lez-Expó ; sito^b ; J.M. Olmos-Martí ; nez^c ; J.L. Herná ; ndez-Herná ; ndez^c
• 关键词：Consultas ; Predicció ; n ; Anciano ; Modelos lineales ; Atenció ; n primaria
• 刊名：SEMERGEN - Medicina de Familia
• 出版年：2011
• 期刊代码：pca342_11383593
• 类别：med
• 出版时间：October 2011
• 卷：37
• 期：8
• 页码：405-411
• 文件大小：171 K

Introduction

Several variables associated with the use of health services by the elderly are already known, although there is disagreement on their effect as predictors of new visits.

The aim of this study was to determine the prediction power of a model of use of consultations in people 鈮?65 years attended in primary care.

Material and methods

A total of 207 patients of both genders were studied. Outcome variables were visits to the primary care centre and visits to hospital emergency services, both also analysed as predictive of one another. Other predictive variables were age, gender and comorbidity. A multiple regression analysis was performed using 14 multivariate models.

Results

The predictive ability improved with stratification and reached the highest performance in the model 鈥淰isits to hospital emergency services in patients without comorbidity鈥?(R² = 0,251, P < .000). Both types of visits were significantly correlated with age, comorbidity, and between themselves. These were the most predictive variables (up to 17.6%), whereas comorbidity contributed up to 11.8%.

Conclusions

Despite the accuracy of the models, these variables are insufficient to predict new consultations in the elderly, because they hardly explain 25%of the final variability.

Within the predictive ability, it was shown that a prior visit is a powerful predictor of a future visit, particularly in three strata: women, < 75 years and patients without comorbidity.

Age and comorbidity are stronger predictors of future visits in men than in women.