Forecast on Energy Demand of Road Transportation in China

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• 作者：Ma Yanli^a ; ^{mayanli@hit.edu.cn} ; Lou Yanjiang^b ; Gao Yuee^c
• 关键词：road transportation ; energy demand ; forecasting
• 刊名：Energy Procedia
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：P136_18766102
• 类别：pw
• 出版时间：2012
• 卷：16
• 期：part_PA
• 页码：403-408
• 文件大小：299 K

摘要

To some extent, there are some uncertainties factors in forecasting energy demand of road transportation. Scientific forecasting China's energy demand of road transportation is a key for make long-term development plans of the nation's road transportation, and relevant policies of environmental protection and energy-saving. Basing on the energy demand of China's road transportation, considering the factors average fuel consumption of singleautomobile and the workload of road transportation, the paper does a comprehensive forecasting for China's energy demand of transportation in the future. The result is that in 2030, the energy demand of road transportation will amount to 250 million tons, which is 1.4 times that of 2020, and 2.3 times that of 2010. The significant increase of energy demand will inevitably bring great pressure to resources of energy and environmental protection, so the implementation of scientific development concept, saving resources and protecting the environment and adopting sustainable development policy will be the objective requirements for highway transportation development of China in the future.