Probabilistic sophistication and stochastic monotonicity in the Savage framework

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• 作者：Simon Grant ; Hatice Ö ; zsoy ; Ben Polak
• 关键词：Subjective probability ; Probabilistic sophistication ; Stochastic monotonicity ; Sure-thing principle ; Cumulative dominance
• 刊名：Mathematical Social Sciences
• 出版年：2008
• 期刊代码：41_01654896
• 类别：mt
• 出版时间：May 2008
• 卷：55
• 期：3
• 页码：371-380
• 文件大小：184 K

摘要

Machina and Schmeidler [Machina, M., Schmeidler, D., 1992. A more robust definition of subjective probability. Econometrica 60, 745–780] show that probabilistic sophistication can be obtained in a Savage setting without imposing expected utility by dropping Savage's axiom P2 (sure-thing principle) and strengthening his axiom P4 (weak comparative probability). Their stronger axiom, however, embodies a degree of separability analogous to P2. In this note, we obtain probabilistic sophistication using Savage's original axiom P4 and a weaker analog of Savage's P2.