Chaotic time series prediction with employment of ant colony optimization

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• 作者：Vasilii A. Gromov ; ^{stroller@rambler.ru} ; Artem N. Shulga ^{muttanabi@gmail.com}
• 关键词：Chaotic time series prediction ; Ant colony optimization
• 刊名：Expert Systems with Applications
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：62_09574174
• 类别：et
• 出版时间：July, 2012
• 卷：39
• 期：9
• 页码：8474-8478
• 文件大小：1231 K

摘要

In this study, the novel method to predict chaotic time series is proposed. The method employs the ant colony optimization paradigm to analyze topological structure of the attractor behind the given time series and to single out the typical sequences corresponding to the different part of the attractor. The typical sequences are used to predict the time series values. The method was applied to time series generated by the Lorenz system, the Mackey-Glass equation, and weather time series as well. The method is able to provide robust prognosis to the periods comparable with the horizon of prediction.