Statistical analysis for assessing shallow-landslide susceptibility in South Tyrol (south-eastern Alps, Italy)

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• 作者：Daniela Piacentini^a ; ^{piacentini.daniela@unimore.it} ; Francesco Troiani^b ; Mauro Soldati^a ; Claudia Notarnicola^c ; Daniele Savelli^b ; Stefan Schneiderbauer^c ; Claudia Strada^d
• 关键词：Shallow landslides ; Weight of evidence analysis ; Susceptibility maps ; South Tyrol ; Eastern Alps ; Italy
• 刊名：Geomorphology
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：31_0169555x
• 类别：soc
• 出版时间：15 May, 2012
• 卷：151-152
• 期：Complete
• 页码：196-206
• 文件大小：1918 K

摘要

This paper conducts a statistical analysis to determine shallow-landslide susceptibility in an approximately 7500-km² region of the south-eastern Alps (South Tyrol, Italy). The study applies the weight of evidence (WofE) method, which is useful in determining landslide susceptibility in large areas with complex geological and geomorphological settings. The statistical analysis and landslide susceptibility mapping are based on 882 past landslides, three geometric/topographic factors and two anthropogenic factors, which are the most relevant landslide predisposing factors. The quality of the proposed model, particularly the fitting performance, was assessed; the landslide database was divided into a training set to obtain the model and a validation set to estimate the model quality. The results show that the developed susceptibility model predicts an acceptable percentage (75%) of landslides. Therefore, the model can be useful and reliable for land planners and decision makers also due to its cost-effectiveness ratio.