Simulation of annual productivity and long-term population trends of white-winged doves in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province
- 作者：Martinez ; Cristina A. ; Grant ; W.E. ; Hejl ; Sallie J. ; Peterson ; Markus J. ; Martinez ; Alfonso ; et. al.
- 关键词：Demographic parameters ; Harvest levels ; Population dynamics ; Tamaulipan Biotic Province ; White-winged doves ; Zenaida asiatica asiatica
- 刊名：Ecological Modelling
- 出版年：2005
- 期刊代码：49_03043800
- 类别：cp
- 出版时间：January 20, 2005
- 卷：181
- 期：2-3
- 页码：149-159
- 文件大小：430 K
摘要
We present a model that synthesizes decades of field data on white-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO) in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province. The model is represented as a discrete-time, deterministic compartment model based on difference equations with a one-week time step designed to simulate annual productivity and long-term trends in abundance. We evaluated the model by comparing simulated annual productivity and long-term population trends to field data. Based on simulation results, we identified apparent inconsistencies in the database; we could not generate the observed annual production index with the model parameterized based on field nest success and survivorship data, nor could we generate a stable long-term population trend with the model parameterized based on suggested sustainable harvest rates and empirically-based estimates of migratory return rates. Simulation results suggest that nest success might be closer to 22%(rather than 35%). A similar trend resulted when simulated hunting pressure was increased by 25%(to 31%), or return rates of migrating juveniles and adults were decreased by 5.5 and 5.0%, to 69 and 77%, respectively, with all other values at the baseline level. For these reasons, until better estimates of nest success and migratory return rates are available, model predictions must be viewed with caution.