Dynamic estimation of markets exhibiting a prey-predator behavior

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• 作者：Christos Michalakelis ; ^{michalak@di.uoa.gr} ; Charisios Christodoulos ^{christod@di.uoa.gr} ; Dimitrios Varoutas ^{arkas@di.uoa.gr} ; Thomas Sphicopoulos ^{thomas@di.uoa.gr}
• 关键词：Market structure ; Market competition ; Market shares ; Telecommunications forecasting ; Prey&ndash ; predator species ; Lotka&ndash ; Volterra model
• 刊名：Expert Systems with Applications
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：62_09574174
• 类别：et
• 出版时间：July, 2012
• 卷：39
• 期：9
• 页码：7690-7700
• 文件大小：957 K

摘要

The evolution of market concentration in high technology saturated markets with a dominant player is dynamically estimated, based on concepts of population biology. The mathematical description was performed using the Lotka-Volterra model and the corresponding parameters were estimated by genetic algorithms. The proposed methodology shows itself capable of estimating market equilibrium and market concentration, the latter expressed by corresponding market shares. Evaluation of the presented methodology in the area of fixed lines telecommunications market led to accurate results, as compared to historical data, in a specific case study. This methodology can provide valuable inputs for managerial decisions, strategic planning and regulatory decisions to the players of a high technology market.