Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden
- 作者：Martin Bö ; rjesson ; martin.borjesson@live.se ; [Author Vitae] ; Erik O. Ahlgren erik.ahlgren@chalmers.se ; [Author Vitae]
- 关键词：Oil dependency ; Transportation sector ; Energy system ; MARKAL ; Optimisation ; Biofuels
- 刊名：Technological Forecasting and Social Change
- 出版年：2012
- 期刊代码：172_00401625
- 类别：et
- 出版时间：June, 2012
- 卷：79
- 期：5
- 页码：801-818
摘要
Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of 鈭?#xA0;0.9-3 billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3 billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4-5 billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.