The impact of climate change on Yam (Dioscorea alata) yield in the savanna zone of West Africa

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• 作者：Amit Kumar Srivastava^a ; ^{amit_forester@yahoo.com} ; Thomas Gaiser^a ; Heiko Paeth^b ; Frank Ewert^c
• 关键词：Climate change ; SRES emission scenarios ; Tuber crops ; Yield ; Moist savanna ; Benin
• 刊名：Agriculture ; Ecosystems & Environment
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：6_01678809
• 类别：abs
• 出版时间：15 June, 2012
• 卷：153
• 期：Complete
• 页码：57-64
• 文件大小：973 K

摘要

This study elucidates the effects of the projected climate variables and CO₂ on yam yield in relation to three major soils in the Upper Ou茅m茅 basin (Benin Republic) on yam (Dioscorea alata) yield. The impact of the SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1 based on the output of the GCM ECHAM5 downscaled with the REMO model and the A1B scenario output of the GCM HADC3Q0 downscaled with the RCM_s SMHIRCA and HADRM3P were analyzed. The A1B scenario, as expected with highest increase in temperature and extreme decline in rainfall, exhibited a decrease of 33%in yield until 2050 under ambient CO₂ concentration (350 ppmv), while under B1 around 27%decline was registered. Whereas, decline under A1B emission scenario of SMHIRCA and HADRM3P accounted 19%and 18%, respectively. The soil type 鈥淔erruginous soils improverished without concretions鈥?(S1) was most sensitive to climate change registering a decline of 48%in yam yield in the decade 2041-2050 followed by 鈥淔erralitic soils鈥?(S2) and 鈥淩aw mineral soils鈥?(S3) showing a decline of 36%and 33%, respectively under A1B scenario derived from REMO model. Analysis of the growth constraints suggest that besides water stress, the indirect effect of reduced rainfall on the release of nitrogen from soil organic matter and hence nitrogen deficiency in the yam crop was the major constraint in the S1soil type.