Inclusion of the variability of model parameters on shelf-life estimations for low and intermediate moisture vegetables

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• 作者：Zamantha Escobedo-Avellaneda^a ; Gonzalo Velazquez^b ; J. Antonio Torres^c ; ^{J_Antonio.Torres@OregonState.edu} ; Jorge Welti-Chanes^a
• 关键词：Moisture sorption isotherms ; G.A.B. model parameters ; Water activity ; Shelf-life ; Monte Carlo simulations
• 刊名：Lebensmittel-Wissenschaft und -Technologie
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：121_00236438
• 类别：abs
• 出版时间：July, 2012
• 卷：47
• 期：2
• 页码：364-370
• 文件大小：413 K

摘要

Shelf-life is the time period during which products retain market-acceptable quality while meeting legal and safety requirements. Deterministic models yield single value estimations of shelf-life typically based on average or worst-case values for input parameters. In deterministic calculations, considering the input parameter variability can be challenging. In this study, a Monte Carlo procedure and the G.A.B. model for moisture sorption isotherms were used to predict shelf-life frequency distributions for intermediate moisture (IM) tomato slices, and low moisture (LM) onion flakes and sliced green beans. End of shelf-life for IM tomato slices (initial a_w聽=聽0.8) was assumed to occur for a 10%moisture loss, and when a_w changed from 0.25 to 0.4 for LM onion flakes and LM sliced green beans. The estimated shelf-life for tomato slices, LM onion flakes, and LM sliced green beans based on the deterministic approach was 243, 86, and 79 days, respectively. The Monte Carlo procedures yielded shelf-life frequency distributions with values ranging 181-366, 76-95, and 71-90 days, respectively. Products would fail before the deterministic shelf-life value with an unacceptably high probability of 51.6, 48.6, and 53.0%, respectively. If 5%is an acceptable probability that the actual shelf-life is shorter than specified, the estimated values would be 211, 81, and 73 days, respectively. X_m and K were the most influential G.A.B parameters on the shelf-life of the three products. The package area, product amount, and water vapor transmission rate were high contributors and had the expected effect on shelf-life as demonstrated by deterministic estimations.