BCC第二代季节预测模式对亚洲夏季风的回报检验

详细信息    查看全文 | 下载全文 | 推荐本文 |

• 作者：刘向文吴统文李巧萍程彦杰梁潇云
• 会议时间：2015-03-12
• 关键词：夏季风 ; 季节预测模式 ; 检验效果
• 作者单位：国家气候中心,北京,100081
• 母体文献：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室2014年度学术年会论文集
• 会议名称：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室2014年度学术年会
• 会议地点：北京
• 主办单位：中国气象局气候研究开放实验室
• 语种：chi
• 分类号：P46;P44

摘要

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature (SST) prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with moderate resolution [BCC_CSM 1.1 (m)].For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon,reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology andspatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over thetropical westem North Pacific and the eastem equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular,overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulationand precipitation pattems exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-timeforecasts.