复杂武器系统技术成熟度评估方法研究
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摘要
复杂武器系统研制风险高,在预研阶段需充分论证。分析现有复杂武器装备技术成熟度评估方法,针对现有方法的不足,在成熟度矩阵算法的基础上,设计了一种新的计算技术成熟度方法。引入信息熵理论,采用主观赋值与客观赋值相结合的方式。调整单项技术在系统中的权重,并能融合专家权重,提高评估结果的合理性。对专家评定的关键技术权重和集成成熟度进行主观赋值偏差一致性检验,确保结果的有效性和可靠性。实例表明,该方法更能反映出系统的实际技术成熟度等级,避免单纯采用矩阵方法带来的偏差,更接近系统实际值。
Complex weapon system has a high developing risk,so it needs sufficient investigation at the stage of pre-research.Current methods for assessing complex weapon system technology readiness level(TRL) are analyzed.Aiming at the deficiencies of current methods,a new approach for computing TRL is proposed.The information entropy theory is introduced;subjective and objective evaluation modes are adopted.The weight of monomial technology is adjusted in the whole system and expert weight can be fused,which can improve evaluation result rationality.Consistency test of subjective assignation deviation is performed on the key technology weight and integrated readiness level(IRL)weight assessed by experts,which insures the effectiveness and reliability of the result.Actual experimental results show that this method can reflect the real system technology readiness level better,avoid the errors brought by just using matrix algorithm and make the result approach real system value.
Complex weapon system has a high developing risk,so it needs sufficient investigation at the stage of pre-research.Current methods for assessing complex weapon system technology readiness level(TRL) are analyzed.Aiming at the deficiencies of current methods,a new approach for computing TRL is proposed.The information entropy theory is introduced;subjective and objective evaluation modes are adopted.The weight of monomial technology is adjusted in the whole system and expert weight can be fused,which can improve evaluation result rationality.Consistency test of subjective assignation deviation is performed on the key technology weight and integrated readiness level(IRL)weight assessed by experts,which insures the effectiveness and reliability of the result.Actual experimental results show that this method can reflect the real system technology readiness level better,avoid the errors brought by just using matrix algorithm and make the result approach real system value.
引文
[1]刘旭蓉,侯妍,艾克武.美英武器装备项目技术成熟度评估研究[J].装备指挥技术学院学报,2005,16(6):48-52.LIU X R,HOU Y,AI K W.Study on the US and UKassessment of technology maturity of weapon equipment[J].Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command&Technology,2005,16(6):48-52.
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[4]DoD 5000.2-R.Mandatory procedures for major defenseacquisition programs(MDAPS)and major automated in-formation system(MAIS)acquisition programs[S].Washington,D.C.:DoD,2005.
[5]Technology Readiness Assessment(TRA)deskbook[R].Washington,D.C.:Assistant Secretary of Defense for Re-search and Engineering(ASD(R&E)),2009.
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[9]RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,SAUSER B J.System devel-opment planning via system maturity optimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2009,56(3):533-548.
[10]RING J,PIZZARELLO A,FRIESEN O,et al.System ofsystems readiness assessment[C].Systems Conference,IEEE Press,2010:5-8.
[11]LONG J M.Integration readiness levels[C].AerospaceConference,IEEE Press,2011:1-9.
[12]SAUSER B,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J,VERMA D,et al.From TRL to SRL:the concept of systems readiness levels[Z].Los Angeles:2006.
[13]SAUSER B J,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,HENRY D,et al.A system maturity index for the systems engineeringlife cycle[J].International Journal of Industrial and Sys-tems Engineering,2008,3(6):673-691.
[14]SHANNON C E.A mathematical theory of communica-tion[J].The Bell System Technical Journal,1948,27:379-423,623-656.
[15]黄以锋,景博,茹常剑.基于信息熵的多值属性系统诊断策略优化方法[J].仪器仪表学报,2011,32(5):1003-1008.HUANG Y F,JING B,RU CH J.Optimal method of di-agnosis strategy in multi-value attribute system based oninformation entropy[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific In-strument,2011,32(5):1003-1008.
[16]万俊,邢焕革,张晓晖.基于熵理论的多属性群决策专家权重的调整算法[J].控制与决策,2010,25(6):907-910.WAN J,XING H G,ZHANG X H.Algorithm of adjus-ting weights of decision-makers in multi-attribute groupdecision-making based on entropy theory[J].Control andDecision,2010,25(6):907-910.
[17]徐迎军,李东.多属性群决策达成一致方法研究[J].控制与决策,2010,25(12):1810-1814,1810.XU Y J,LI D.Approach to reaching consensus in multi-ple attribute group decision making[J].Control and De-cision,2010,25(12):1810-1814,1810.
[2]MANKINS J C.Technology readiness levels[R].AWhite Paper,Washington,D.C.:NASA,1995.
[3]MACKEY R,SOME R,ALJABRI A.Readiness levelsfor spacecraft information technologies[C].AerospaceConference,IEEE Press,2003:1-398.
[4]DoD 5000.2-R.Mandatory procedures for major defenseacquisition programs(MDAPS)and major automated in-formation system(MAIS)acquisition programs[S].Washington,D.C.:DoD,2005.
[5]Technology Readiness Assessment(TRA)deskbook[R].Washington,D.C.:Assistant Secretary of Defense for Re-search and Engineering(ASD(R&E)),2009.
[6]SAUSER B,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,MAGNAYE R.A systems approach to expanding the technology readinesslevel within defense acquisition[J].International Jour-nal of Defense Acquisition Management,2008,1(1):39-58.
[7]GB/T22900—2009.科学技术研究项目评价通则[S].北京:中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局、中国国家标准化管理委员会,2009.GB/T 22900—2009.General rules of science and tech-nology research projects evaluation[S].Beijing:AQSIQ&SAC,2009.
[8]WEIPING T,SAUSER B J,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E.Analyzing component importance in multifunction multica-pability systems developmental maturity assessment[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2011,58(2):275-294.
[9]RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,SAUSER B J.System devel-opment planning via system maturity optimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2009,56(3):533-548.
[10]RING J,PIZZARELLO A,FRIESEN O,et al.System ofsystems readiness assessment[C].Systems Conference,IEEE Press,2010:5-8.
[11]LONG J M.Integration readiness levels[C].AerospaceConference,IEEE Press,2011:1-9.
[12]SAUSER B,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J,VERMA D,et al.From TRL to SRL:the concept of systems readiness levels[Z].Los Angeles:2006.
[13]SAUSER B J,RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,HENRY D,et al.A system maturity index for the systems engineeringlife cycle[J].International Journal of Industrial and Sys-tems Engineering,2008,3(6):673-691.
[14]SHANNON C E.A mathematical theory of communica-tion[J].The Bell System Technical Journal,1948,27:379-423,623-656.
[15]黄以锋,景博,茹常剑.基于信息熵的多值属性系统诊断策略优化方法[J].仪器仪表学报,2011,32(5):1003-1008.HUANG Y F,JING B,RU CH J.Optimal method of di-agnosis strategy in multi-value attribute system based oninformation entropy[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific In-strument,2011,32(5):1003-1008.
[16]万俊,邢焕革,张晓晖.基于熵理论的多属性群决策专家权重的调整算法[J].控制与决策,2010,25(6):907-910.WAN J,XING H G,ZHANG X H.Algorithm of adjus-ting weights of decision-makers in multi-attribute groupdecision-making based on entropy theory[J].Control andDecision,2010,25(6):907-910.
[17]徐迎军,李东.多属性群决策达成一致方法研究[J].控制与决策,2010,25(12):1810-1814,1810.XU Y J,LI D.Approach to reaching consensus in multi-ple attribute group decision making[J].Control and De-cision,2010,25(12):1810-1814,1810.