基于二元梯度和边际的中国制造业OFDI母国就业效应
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摘要
本文从投资国别、投资二元边际两个角度分析了中国制造业OFDI对国内就业的影响,结论如下:中国无需担忧大规模"走出去"会造成国内就业空心化问题;中国制造业双梯度OFDI对国内就业均有拉动作用,但不同技术层次制造业结果存在差异,低技术制造业OFDI对国内就业的促进作用主要来自发达国家的"逆梯度"OFDI;中、高技术制造业对国内就业的拉动主要来自在发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI;中国制造业OFDI对国内就业的促进作用主要来自于投资的扩展边际,并且对不同技术层次进行分析时得出一致结论;分二元边际的投资国别研究发现,双梯度OFDI的结构特征对其作用结果不一致,发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI对国内的就业作用主要来自于集约边际,发达国家的"逆梯度"OFDI对国内就业的作用主要来自于扩展边际;不同技术层次行业的作用结果也存在差异,在发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI的集约边际,对低技术制造业的国内就业有显著的抑制作用,对中、高技术制造业的国内就业有促进作用,在发达国家的"逆向"OFDI扩展边际,对中、低等技术制造业国内就业有显著的拉动作用,对高技术制造业的拉动作用不明显。
This paper analyzes the influence of Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI) in Chinese manufacturing industry on domestic employment from the perspectives of investment country and investment duality margin, and draws the following conclusion: China does not need to worry that the largescale "going out" will cause the hollowing out of domestic employment. On one hand, double-graded OFDI in China's manufacturing industry has a positive effect on domestic employment. However, there are differences in manufacturing results at different levels of technology. The effect of low-tech manufacturing OFDI on domestic employment is mainly from the "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries; higher-tech manufacturing's pull on domestic employment mainly comes from "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries. On the other hand,when examining relations between the structural characteristics of investment and domestic employment, the paper finds that the role of OFDI in promoting domestic employment mainly comes from the extended margins of investment, and the same conclusion is reached in the analysis of different levels of technology. Further, the dual margin study of investment country reveals that the structural characteristics of the dual-gradient OFDI have inconsistent results. The effect on domestic employment of the "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries mainly comes from the intensive margin, and the one of the "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries mainly comes from the expansive margins. And there are also differences in the effects of industries at different levels of technology. As for the intensive margins of "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries, there is a significant inhibitory effect on domestic employment in low-tech manufacturing,while there is a catalytic effect on domestic employment in higher-tech manufacturing industries. As for the expansive margins of "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries, there is a significant catalytic effect on domestic employment in low-and medium-technology manufacturing industries, but there is no obvious effect on high-tech manufacturing industries.
This paper analyzes the influence of Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI) in Chinese manufacturing industry on domestic employment from the perspectives of investment country and investment duality margin, and draws the following conclusion: China does not need to worry that the largescale "going out" will cause the hollowing out of domestic employment. On one hand, double-graded OFDI in China's manufacturing industry has a positive effect on domestic employment. However, there are differences in manufacturing results at different levels of technology. The effect of low-tech manufacturing OFDI on domestic employment is mainly from the "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries; higher-tech manufacturing's pull on domestic employment mainly comes from "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries. On the other hand,when examining relations between the structural characteristics of investment and domestic employment, the paper finds that the role of OFDI in promoting domestic employment mainly comes from the extended margins of investment, and the same conclusion is reached in the analysis of different levels of technology. Further, the dual margin study of investment country reveals that the structural characteristics of the dual-gradient OFDI have inconsistent results. The effect on domestic employment of the "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries mainly comes from the intensive margin, and the one of the "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries mainly comes from the expansive margins. And there are also differences in the effects of industries at different levels of technology. As for the intensive margins of "down gradient" OFDI in developing countries, there is a significant inhibitory effect on domestic employment in low-tech manufacturing,while there is a catalytic effect on domestic employment in higher-tech manufacturing industries. As for the expansive margins of "up gradient" OFDI in developed countries, there is a significant catalytic effect on domestic employment in low-and medium-technology manufacturing industries, but there is no obvious effect on high-tech manufacturing industries.
引文
[1]黄晓玲,刘会政.中国对外直接投资的就业效应分析[J].管理现代化,2007(1):45-48.
[2]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[3]姜华欣,史本叶,范思琦.我国企业对外直接投资的行业选择与思考[J].经济纵横,2013(5):38-41
[4]李逢春.对外直接投资的母国产业升级效应——来自中国省际面板的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2012(6):124-134.
[5]刘海云,毛海欧.制造业OFDI对出口增加值的影响[J].中国工业经济,2016(7):7.
[6]罗良文.对外直接投资的就业效应:理论及中国实证研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2007(5):87-91.
[7]李梅,柳士昌.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].管理世界,2012(1):21-32.
[8]刘耀辉.我国对外直接投资对国内就业的影响研究[D].武汉理工大学,2006.
[9]钱学锋,陈勇兵.国际分散化生产导致了集聚吗[J].世界经济,2009(12):27-39.
[10]隋月红.“二元”对外直接投资与贸易结构:机理与来自我国的证据[J].国际商务——对外经济贸易大学学报,2010(6):66-73.
[11]吴先明,黄春桃.中国企业对外直接投资的动因:逆向投资与顺向投资的比较研究[J].中国工业经济,2016(1):99-113.
[12]余官胜,李会粉.横向、纵向抑或两者兼具——中国企业对外直接投资动机实证研究[J].财贸研究,2013(5):79-85.
[13]BERGSTRAND,EGGER.A Knowledge-and-physical-capital Model of International Trade Flows,Foreign Direct Investment,and Multinational Enterprises[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):278-308.
[14]BRAINARD,RIKER.US Multinationals and Competition from Low Wage Countries[M].National Bureau of Economic Research,1997.
[15]FALZONI,GRASSENI.Home Country Effects of Investing Abroad:Evidence from Quantile Regressions[R].KITe S,Centre for Knowledge,Internationalization and Technology Studies,Universita'Bocconi,Milano,Italy,2005.
[16]FEDERICO,MINERVA.Outward FDI and Local Employment Growth in Italy[J].Review of World Economics 2008,144(2).
[17]EICHER,HELFMAN,LENKOSKI.Robust FDI Determinants:Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of Selection Bias[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(3):637-651.
[18]HELPMAN,MELITZ,YEAPLE.Export Versus FDI[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research,2003.
[19]HIRSCH.International Business Review[J].International Business Review,2009,18(2):211-213.
[20]KEUSCHNIGG.Exports,Foreign Direct Investment,and the Costs of Corporate Taxation[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2008,15(4):460-477.
[21]LAYARD,ASHENFELTER,CARD.Handbook of Labor Economics[M].North-Holland,1986.
[22]LIPWORTH,BAYOUMI.Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade[M].International Monetary Fund,1997.
[23]MELITZ.The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[24]SLAUGHTER.Multinational Corporations,Outsourcing,and American Wage Divergence[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[25]YEAPLE.Firm Heterogeneity and the Structure of U.S.Multinational Activity[J].Journal of International Economics,2009,78(2):206-215.
(1)样本国家包括澳大利亚、比利时、巴西、加拿大、德国、西班牙、法国、英国、印度尼西亚、印度、意大利、日本、韩国、墨西哥、荷兰、波兰、俄罗斯、土耳其、美国。
(2)本文涉及世界投入产出表中的14个制造业行业:食品、饮料、烟草行业(c3),纺织原料及其制品(c4),皮革、皮革制品和鞋类(c5),木材及其制品(c6),纸浆、纸制品和印刷出版(c7),煤炭、炼油和核燃料(c8),化学原料及其制品(c9),橡胶和塑料制品(c10),其他非金属矿物(c11),基础金属和合金(c12),机械(c13),电子和光学仪器(c14),运输设备(c15),其他制造业及回收(c16)。
(1)该方法对估计模型进行一阶差分,将弱外生变量的滞后项作为相应变量的工具变量,从而获得一致有效估计。为了防止伪回归,保证回归结果的有效性,在进行系统GMM回归前,先对面板数据的时间序列进行平稳性检验,即单位根检验。本文采用两种常用的单位根检验方法,即相同跟单位根检验LLC检验和不同根单位根检Fisher-ADF检验,发现各变量的时间序列的一阶差分都在10%水平下拒绝存在单位根,因此序列都是平稳的。
[2]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[3]姜华欣,史本叶,范思琦.我国企业对外直接投资的行业选择与思考[J].经济纵横,2013(5):38-41
[4]李逢春.对外直接投资的母国产业升级效应——来自中国省际面板的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2012(6):124-134.
[5]刘海云,毛海欧.制造业OFDI对出口增加值的影响[J].中国工业经济,2016(7):7.
[6]罗良文.对外直接投资的就业效应:理论及中国实证研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2007(5):87-91.
[7]李梅,柳士昌.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析[J].管理世界,2012(1):21-32.
[8]刘耀辉.我国对外直接投资对国内就业的影响研究[D].武汉理工大学,2006.
[9]钱学锋,陈勇兵.国际分散化生产导致了集聚吗[J].世界经济,2009(12):27-39.
[10]隋月红.“二元”对外直接投资与贸易结构:机理与来自我国的证据[J].国际商务——对外经济贸易大学学报,2010(6):66-73.
[11]吴先明,黄春桃.中国企业对外直接投资的动因:逆向投资与顺向投资的比较研究[J].中国工业经济,2016(1):99-113.
[12]余官胜,李会粉.横向、纵向抑或两者兼具——中国企业对外直接投资动机实证研究[J].财贸研究,2013(5):79-85.
[13]BERGSTRAND,EGGER.A Knowledge-and-physical-capital Model of International Trade Flows,Foreign Direct Investment,and Multinational Enterprises[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):278-308.
[14]BRAINARD,RIKER.US Multinationals and Competition from Low Wage Countries[M].National Bureau of Economic Research,1997.
[15]FALZONI,GRASSENI.Home Country Effects of Investing Abroad:Evidence from Quantile Regressions[R].KITe S,Centre for Knowledge,Internationalization and Technology Studies,Universita'Bocconi,Milano,Italy,2005.
[16]FEDERICO,MINERVA.Outward FDI and Local Employment Growth in Italy[J].Review of World Economics 2008,144(2).
[17]EICHER,HELFMAN,LENKOSKI.Robust FDI Determinants:Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of Selection Bias[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(3):637-651.
[18]HELPMAN,MELITZ,YEAPLE.Export Versus FDI[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research,2003.
[19]HIRSCH.International Business Review[J].International Business Review,2009,18(2):211-213.
[20]KEUSCHNIGG.Exports,Foreign Direct Investment,and the Costs of Corporate Taxation[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2008,15(4):460-477.
[21]LAYARD,ASHENFELTER,CARD.Handbook of Labor Economics[M].North-Holland,1986.
[22]LIPWORTH,BAYOUMI.Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade[M].International Monetary Fund,1997.
[23]MELITZ.The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[24]SLAUGHTER.Multinational Corporations,Outsourcing,and American Wage Divergence[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[25]YEAPLE.Firm Heterogeneity and the Structure of U.S.Multinational Activity[J].Journal of International Economics,2009,78(2):206-215.
(1)样本国家包括澳大利亚、比利时、巴西、加拿大、德国、西班牙、法国、英国、印度尼西亚、印度、意大利、日本、韩国、墨西哥、荷兰、波兰、俄罗斯、土耳其、美国。
(2)本文涉及世界投入产出表中的14个制造业行业:食品、饮料、烟草行业(c3),纺织原料及其制品(c4),皮革、皮革制品和鞋类(c5),木材及其制品(c6),纸浆、纸制品和印刷出版(c7),煤炭、炼油和核燃料(c8),化学原料及其制品(c9),橡胶和塑料制品(c10),其他非金属矿物(c11),基础金属和合金(c12),机械(c13),电子和光学仪器(c14),运输设备(c15),其他制造业及回收(c16)。
(1)该方法对估计模型进行一阶差分,将弱外生变量的滞后项作为相应变量的工具变量,从而获得一致有效估计。为了防止伪回归,保证回归结果的有效性,在进行系统GMM回归前,先对面板数据的时间序列进行平稳性检验,即单位根检验。本文采用两种常用的单位根检验方法,即相同跟单位根检验LLC检验和不同根单位根检Fisher-ADF检验,发现各变量的时间序列的一阶差分都在10%水平下拒绝存在单位根,因此序列都是平稳的。