帕隆藏布流域冰湖变化及危险性评估
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摘要
冰湖作为区域气候变化的灵敏指示器和主要冰川灾害的启动器,认识其空间分布及变化特征对探讨冰湖对气候变化的响应规律及冰湖溃决危险性评估具有重要意义.基于1968-1980年地形图数据和1994-2016年Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像资料,综合利用RS、GIS技术和数理统计方法分析帕隆藏布流域面积≥0.01 km2冰湖时空分布及其动态变化,并对潜在危险性冰湖进行判别和评估.结果表明:2016年帕隆藏布流域共有冰湖351个,面积50.48 km2,且面积和数量分别以面积>1 km2和面积<0.1 km2的冰湖为主,这些冰湖主要分布于海拔2800～5400 m之间.近50年来帕隆藏布流域冰湖总体呈数量增多、面积增加态势;海拔<3000 m的冰湖相对稳定,而海拔>4500 m的冰湖数量和面积增加则相对迅速.近50年间帕隆藏布流域冰川面积减少591.34 km2,气候变暖导致的冰川末端退缩和冰川融水增加为冰湖形成和扩张提供了发育空间和物质来源.切毛措、光谢错等9个冰湖为潜在危险性冰湖,预计未来一段时间内帕隆藏布流域冰湖溃决可能处于活跃阶段,其形成和暴发也将更加频繁.
Glacial lake serves as a sensitive indicator of regional climate change and trigger of major glacial disasters. Understanding its spatial distribution and changing characteristics is of great significance for exploring the response of glacial lake to climate change and assessing the risk of glacial lake outburst. Based on the topographic maps in 1968-1980 and Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images from 1994 to 2016,we analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution and dynamic changes of glacial lakes with an area larger than 0.01 km2 in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin as well as identified and evaluated the potential dangerous glacial lakes using RS,GIS and mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that: In 2016,there were 351 glacial lakes with a total area of 50.48 km~2 in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin. Glacial lakes with areas >1 km~2 accounted for the largest area and <0.1 km~2 accounted for the biggest number. Glacial lakes were mainly concentrated in 2800-5400 m. In the past 50 years,the number and area of glacial lakes in this basin have increased. Among them,the number and area of glacial lakes below 3000 m were relatively stable,whereas those above 4500 m increased rapidly. Under the background of climate warming,the glacier area in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin has decreased by 591.34 km~2 in the past 50 years. The retreat of the glacier terminal and the increase of glacial meltwater provided development space and material source for the formation,expansion and area increase of glacial lakes. There were 9 potentially dangerous glacial lakes being identified in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin. It is expected that the glacial lake outburst will be in an active stage in the future.
Glacial lake serves as a sensitive indicator of regional climate change and trigger of major glacial disasters. Understanding its spatial distribution and changing characteristics is of great significance for exploring the response of glacial lake to climate change and assessing the risk of glacial lake outburst. Based on the topographic maps in 1968-1980 and Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images from 1994 to 2016,we analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution and dynamic changes of glacial lakes with an area larger than 0.01 km2 in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin as well as identified and evaluated the potential dangerous glacial lakes using RS,GIS and mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that: In 2016,there were 351 glacial lakes with a total area of 50.48 km~2 in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin. Glacial lakes with areas >1 km~2 accounted for the largest area and <0.1 km~2 accounted for the biggest number. Glacial lakes were mainly concentrated in 2800-5400 m. In the past 50 years,the number and area of glacial lakes in this basin have increased. Among them,the number and area of glacial lakes below 3000 m were relatively stable,whereas those above 4500 m increased rapidly. Under the background of climate warming,the glacier area in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin has decreased by 591.34 km~2 in the past 50 years. The retreat of the glacier terminal and the increase of glacial meltwater provided development space and material source for the formation,expansion and area increase of glacial lakes. There were 9 potentially dangerous glacial lakes being identified in the Parlung Zangbo River Basin. It is expected that the glacial lake outburst will be in an active stage in the future.
引文
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[20] Chen ZL,Hong Y,Li XY. The warning technology of debris flow caused by glacier-lake outburst tin Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Mountain Science,2011,29(3):369-377.[程尊兰,洪勇,黎晓宇.青藏高原典型冰湖溃决泥石流预警技术.山地学报,2011,29(3):369-377.]
[21] Harrison S,Kargel JS,Huggel C et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods. Cryosphere,2018,12:1195-1209.
[22] Li ZG. Glaciers and lakes changes on the Tibetan Plateau under Climate change in the past 50 years. Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(8):1431-1443.[李治国.近50a气候变化背景下青藏高原冰川和湖泊变化.自然资源学报,2012,27(8):1431-1443.]
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[24] Song C,Sheng Y,Ke L et al. Glacier lake evolution in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the cause of rapid expansion of proglacial lakes linked to glacial-hydrogeomorphic processes. Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:504-514.
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