气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献
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摘要
基于汀江流域控制站(溪口站)1965—2012年日均径流量实测数据及长汀、上杭、永定气象站逐日降水量、逐日气温资料,采用年段均值比较、5a滑动、趋势线分析和累积距平等方法,分析流域近50年来的径流量序列,揭示径流量变化的趋势,判别径流量变化的突变年份,划分径流量变化的阶段.并应用改进后的累积量斜率变化率比较法定量估算了近50年来气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献率.结果表明:(1)径流量总体呈现下降—上升—下降的波动,判别突变年份为1972、2001年,划分径流变化阶段为1965—1972年(A阶段)、1973—2001年(B阶段)、2002—2012年(C阶段);(2)与A阶段相比,B、C阶段气候变化对径流量变化的贡献率分别为65.1%、50.5%,而人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率为34.9%、49.5%,可见人类活动对径流量变化贡献日趋突出.
Based on 1965-2012 average daily runoff measured data of control hydrometric station( Xi Kou) in the Tingjiang Basin,and daily precipitation and daily temperature of three meteorological stations in the Tingjiang Basin( Chang Ting,Shang Hang,Yong Ding). Paragraph mean comparison,5 a sliding trend line analysis and cumulative anomaly methods are used to analyze runoff series in recent 50 years. The trend of runoff variation is revealed. The mutation years of runoff variation are identified. The stages of runoff variation are divided. The improved cumulative slope rate comparison method is used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of the climate change and human activities to runoff variation of Tingjiang in nearly 50 years. The results show that:( 1) The runoff shows a down-updown fluctuation in general,and the mutation year is 1972 and 2001,the variation stages of runoff are 1965-1972( stage A),1973-2001( stage B),2002-2012( stage C).( 2) Comparing with stage A,the contribution rates of climate change to runoff variation in stage B and C are 65.1% and 50.5%,respectively,while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff variation is 34.9% and 49.5%,respectively. This shows that the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff is increasing prominent.
Based on 1965-2012 average daily runoff measured data of control hydrometric station( Xi Kou) in the Tingjiang Basin,and daily precipitation and daily temperature of three meteorological stations in the Tingjiang Basin( Chang Ting,Shang Hang,Yong Ding). Paragraph mean comparison,5 a sliding trend line analysis and cumulative anomaly methods are used to analyze runoff series in recent 50 years. The trend of runoff variation is revealed. The mutation years of runoff variation are identified. The stages of runoff variation are divided. The improved cumulative slope rate comparison method is used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of the climate change and human activities to runoff variation of Tingjiang in nearly 50 years. The results show that:( 1) The runoff shows a down-updown fluctuation in general,and the mutation year is 1972 and 2001,the variation stages of runoff are 1965-1972( stage A),1973-2001( stage B),2002-2012( stage C).( 2) Comparing with stage A,the contribution rates of climate change to runoff variation in stage B and C are 65.1% and 50.5%,respectively,while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff variation is 34.9% and 49.5%,respectively. This shows that the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff is increasing prominent.
引文
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[21]李守中,余丽凡,邹怡静,等.长汀侵蚀退化地区生态恢复过程中植被多样性与土壤肥力的变化研究[J].安徽农学通报,2008,14(19):49-51;81.LI S Z,YU L F,ZOU Y J,et al.Changes of vegetation diversity and soil fertility during the ecological restoration process in an eroded area of Changting County[J].Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin,2008,14(19):49-51;81.
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[24]夏让欣.福建山区水利建设的调查与思考[J].中国水利,2002(9):110-111.
[25]林凯荣,何艳虎,陈晓宏.气候变化及人类活动对东江流域径流影响的贡献分解研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1312-1321.LIN K R,HE Y H,CHEN X H.Identifying the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(11):1312-1321.
[26]赵阳,余新晓,郑江坤,等.气候和土地利用变化对潮白河流域径流变化的定量影响[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(22):252-260.ZHAO Y,YU X X,ZHENG J K,et al.Quantitative effects of climate variations and land-use changes on annual streamflow in Chaobai River Basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(22):252-260.
[27]袁宇志,张正栋,蒙金华.基于SWAT模型的流溪河流域土地利用与气候变化对径流的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(4):989-998.YUAN Y Z,ZHANG Z D,MENG J H.Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(4):989-998.
[28]邓晓宇,张强,孙鹏,等.气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流影响模拟[J].热带地理,2014,34(3):293-301.DENG X Y,ZHANG Q,SUN P,et al.Assessment of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with HSPF for the Xinjiang River Basin[J].Tropical Geography,2014,34(3):293-301.
[2]刘宇峰,孙虎,原志华.基于小波分析的汾河河津站径流与输沙的多时间尺度特征[J].地理科学,2012,32(6):764-770.LIU Y F,SUN H,YUAN Z H.Multitime scale features of runoff and sediment discharge on wavelet analysis at Hejin Station of Fenhe River Basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(6):764-770.
[3]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.CHEN Y N,LI Z,FANG Y T,et al.Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,69(9):1295-1304.
[4]吴创收,杨世伦,黄世昌,等.1954-2011年间珠江入海水沙通量变化的多尺度分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(3):422-432.WU C S,YANG S L,HUANG S C,et al.Multi-scale variability of water discharge and sediment load in the Pearl River during 1954-2011[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,69(3):422-432.
[5]任惠茹,李国胜,崔林林,等.近60年来黄河入海水沙通量变化的阶段性与多尺度特征[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):619-631.REN H R,LI S G,CUI L L,et al.Phases and periodic changes of water discharge and sediment load from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea during 1950-2011[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,69(5):619-631.
[6]胡光伟,毛德华,李正最,等.荆江三口60a来入湖水沙变化规律及其驱动力分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(1):129-142.HU G W,MAO D H,LI Z Z,et al.Characteristics and driving factors of runoff and sediment changes fluxes into the Dongting Lake from three outlets in Jingjiang River during past 60 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(1):129-142.
[7]LEGESSE D,VALLET-COULOMB C,GASSE F.Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and landuse changes in Tropical Africa case study South Central Ethiopia[J].Journal of Hydrology,2003,275(1):67-85.
[8]王随继,闫云霞,颜明,等.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析---累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):388-397.WANG S J,YAN Y X,YAN M,et al.Contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change of the Huangfuchuan drainage basin:application of comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):388-397.
[9]王随继,李玲,颜明.气候和人类活动对黄河中游区间产流量变化的贡献率[J].地理研究,2013,32(3):395-402.WANG S J,LI L,YAN M.The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(3):395-402.
[10]王彦君,王随继,苏腾.1955-2010年松花江流域不同区段径流量变化影响因素定量评估[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(1):65-75.WANG Y J,WANG S J,SU T.Quantification of impacts of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes in different sections of Songhua River during 1955-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(1):65-75.
[11]张晓娅,杨世伦.流域气候变化和人类活动对长江径流量影响的辨识(1956~2011)[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(12):1729-1739.ZHANG X Y,YANG S L.Climatic and anthropogenic impacts on wathr discharge in the Yangtze River over the last 56 years(1956-2011)[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2014,23(12):1729-1739.
[12]王彦君,王随继,苏腾.降水和人类活动对松花江径流量变化的贡献率[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):304-314.WANG Y J,WANG S J,SU T,et al.Contributions of precipitation and human activities to runoff change in the Songhua River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(2):304-314.
[13]马龙,刘廷玺,马丽,等.气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):470-479.MA L,LIU T X,MA L,et al.The effect of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upperand middle reaches of the Liaohe River Inner Mongoli[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(2):470-479.
[14]邱临静,郑粉莉,尹润生,等.降水变化和人类活动对延河流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(5):357-362.QIU L J,ZHENG F L,YIN R S,et al.Quantification of impacts of precipitation change and human activities on streamflow in the Yanhe River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,7(5):357-362.
[15]夏智宏,刘敏,王苗,等.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515-521.XIA Z H,LIU M,WANG M,et al.Quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu Basin since 1990s[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2014,26(4):515-521.
[16]邱宇.汀江流域水环境安全评估[J].环境科学研究,2013,26(2):152-159.QIU Y.The evaluation of the Tingjiang River Basin water environment safety[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2013,26(2):152-159.
[17]周素萍,张兴奇.汀江上游水沙变化特征分析[J].水文,2010,30(2):89-92.ZHOU S P,ZHANG X Q.Characteristics analysis of runoff and sediment in upper reach of Tingjiang River[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(2):89-92.
[18]王海龙.基于小波分析的汀江水沙通量变化规律研究[J].泥沙研究,2012(2):61-67.WANG H L.Characteristics of water discharge and sediment load variability of Tingjiang River by wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Sediment Research,2012(2):61-67.
[19]RAN L S,WANG S J,FAN X L.Channel change at toudaoguai station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(2):231-247.
[20]李艳,陈晓宏,王兆礼.人类活动对北江流域径流系列变化的影响初探[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(6):910-915.LI Y,CHENG X H,WANG Z L.A tentative discussion on the impact of human activities on the variability of runoff series of the Beijing River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(6):910-915.
[21]李守中,余丽凡,邹怡静,等.长汀侵蚀退化地区生态恢复过程中植被多样性与土壤肥力的变化研究[J].安徽农学通报,2008,14(19):49-51;81.LI S Z,YU L F,ZOU Y J,et al.Changes of vegetation diversity and soil fertility during the ecological restoration process in an eroded area of Changting County[J].Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin,2008,14(19):49-51;81.
[22]朱颂茜.汀江流域水土流失现状及特点分析[J].亚热带水土保持,2005,17(1):44-47.
[23]李宇.梅江、汀江调峰影响河段设计水位的推算及航道整治研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007.LI Y.Study on the influence of Meijiang and Dingjiang reckoning and waterway regulation reach peak water level design[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2007.
[24]夏让欣.福建山区水利建设的调查与思考[J].中国水利,2002(9):110-111.
[25]林凯荣,何艳虎,陈晓宏.气候变化及人类活动对东江流域径流影响的贡献分解研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1312-1321.LIN K R,HE Y H,CHEN X H.Identifying the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(11):1312-1321.
[26]赵阳,余新晓,郑江坤,等.气候和土地利用变化对潮白河流域径流变化的定量影响[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(22):252-260.ZHAO Y,YU X X,ZHENG J K,et al.Quantitative effects of climate variations and land-use changes on annual streamflow in Chaobai River Basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(22):252-260.
[27]袁宇志,张正栋,蒙金华.基于SWAT模型的流溪河流域土地利用与气候变化对径流的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(4):989-998.YUAN Y Z,ZHANG Z D,MENG J H.Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(4):989-998.
[28]邓晓宇,张强,孙鹏,等.气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流影响模拟[J].热带地理,2014,34(3):293-301.DENG X Y,ZHANG Q,SUN P,et al.Assessment of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with HSPF for the Xinjiang River Basin[J].Tropical Geography,2014,34(3):293-301.