近36年藏东“三江”流域农业气候资源变化特征
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摘要
为了解藏东"三江"流域农业气候资源的变化特征,为政府部门合理利用气候资源提供科学依据。利用藏东"三江"流域1980—2015年逐日气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,应用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法,分析近36年藏东"三江"流域热量、光照、降水资源的变化趋势及对农业生产的影响。结果表明:近36年,藏东"三江"流域年平均气温、日照时数、降水量呈增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.38℃/10 a、22.2 h/10 a、9.4 mm/10 a;流域内各站气温年、季变化趋势一致,日照时数与降水量年、季变化趋势差异较大;降水相对变率春季最大,夏季最小;≥0℃的初日提早、终日推迟,持续日数延长,积温增长。农业气候资源的变化将对藏东"三江"流域农业的发展产生巨大影响。
The study aims to understand the variation characteristics of agricultural climate resources in theriver source region of eastern Tibet, and to provide references for government departments to rationally utilizeclimate resources. Using the daily temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation data in the river source regionof eastern Tibet from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature, sunshinehours and precipitation and the impacts of climate change on agriculture in recent 36 years by the applicationof linear-trend estimate, Mann-Kendall method and so on. The results showed that: the variation trend ofannual mean temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation increased at a rate of about 0.38℃/10 a, 22.2 h/10 a, 9.4 mm/10 a, respectively, in the river source region of eastern Tibet; the annual and seasonal meantemperature had the same variation trend, sunshine hours and precipitation presented annual and seasonaldifferences in different weather stations; the change rate of precipitation in spring was the largest, and that insummer was the least; for temperature≥0℃, the beginning date was advanced, the ending date was postponed,and the lasting days and the accumulated temperature steadily increased. In conclusion, the change ofagricultural climate resources will have a huge impact on agricultural development in the river source region ofeastern Tibet.
The study aims to understand the variation characteristics of agricultural climate resources in theriver source region of eastern Tibet, and to provide references for government departments to rationally utilizeclimate resources. Using the daily temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation data in the river source regionof eastern Tibet from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature, sunshinehours and precipitation and the impacts of climate change on agriculture in recent 36 years by the applicationof linear-trend estimate, Mann-Kendall method and so on. The results showed that: the variation trend ofannual mean temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation increased at a rate of about 0.38℃/10 a, 22.2 h/10 a, 9.4 mm/10 a, respectively, in the river source region of eastern Tibet; the annual and seasonal meantemperature had the same variation trend, sunshine hours and precipitation presented annual and seasonaldifferences in different weather stations; the change rate of precipitation in spring was the largest, and that insummer was the least; for temperature≥0℃, the beginning date was advanced, the ending date was postponed,and the lasting days and the accumulated temperature steadily increased. In conclusion, the change ofagricultural climate resources will have a huge impact on agricultural development in the river source region ofeastern Tibet.
引文
[1]张华国.西藏“一江两河”农业生态流域发展高原现代农业问题与对策建议[C].中国农业资源与区划学会学术年会,2015.
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[11]杜军,普布卓玛,索朗欧珠.西藏青稞需水关键期降水的气候变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):23-27.
[12]余忠水,唐叔乙,云丹尼玛.1971-2010年雅鲁藏布江中游气候生长期变化特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):338-346.
[13]马鹏飞,杜军,杜晓辉.1981-2014年西藏0℃界限温度变化趋势的时空分布[J].中国农学通报,2016(8):147-153.
[14]杜军,普布卓玛,索朗欧珠.西藏青稞需水关键期降水的气候变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):23-27.
[15]杜军,马鹏飞,袁雷.西藏“一江两河”流域油菜需水关键期降水的变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016(3):170-174.
[16]杜军,马鹏飞,杜晓辉,等.气候变化对藏东北牧业生产关键期的影响[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(5):1361-1371.
[17]侯亚红.西藏河谷农区灌水和中后期降雨对高产青稞耗水量与产量的影响[J].农业科学与技术:英文版,2016,17(3):530-534.
[18]杜军,胡军,周保琴,等.西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力对气候变化的响应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(1):141-145.
[19]刘依兰边,巴扎西.西藏林芝地区耕作制度气候区划[J].中国农业气象,1997,18(1):27-29.
[20]韩国军,王玉兰,房世波.近50年青藏高原气候变化及其对农牧业的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1969-1975.
[21]张戈丽,欧阳华,周才平,等.近50年来气候变化对西藏“一江两河”地区农业气候热量资源的影响[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1943-1954.
[22]缪启龙,向毓意,顾显跃.气候变化对西藏环境经济的可能影响[J].应用气象学报,1998(2):225-230.
[23]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].气象出版社,2007:69-70.
[24]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原近50年气温和降水时空变化特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(12):167-172.
[26]林日暖.高原农业气象研究[M].气象出版社,2001:106-109.
[27]罗珍,尼玛卓嘎.西藏青稞种植的农业气候条件分析[J].北京农业,2015(20).
[28]杜军,边多,胡军,等.西藏近35年日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2007,62(5):492-500.
[2]格桑曲珍,普布次仁,胡希远.西藏气候变化及其对作物产量潜力的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(2):266-271.
[3]薛改萍,林志强,德庆.FY2C水汽通道资料反映的西藏高原水汽特征[J].科学技术与工程,2013(35):10589-10594.
[4]李明森.藏东的三江流域[J].中国西藏:中文版,1996(2):52-55.
[5]李莹,高歌,宋连春.IPCC第五次评估报告对气候变化风险及风险管理的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):260-267.
[6]汤绪,杨续超,田展,等.气候变化对中国农业气候资源的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1962-1968.
[7]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):80-94.
[8]王雅琼,马世铭.中国区域农业适应气候变化技术选择[J].中国农业气象,2009,中国农业气象,2009,30(S1):51-56(s1):51-56.
[9]汤小橹,金晓斌,盛莉,等.基于小波分析的粮食产量对气候变化的响应研究--以西藏自治区为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,200824(6):88-92.
[10]唐小萍,旦增顿珠,格桑,等.近46年西藏农区作物生长季气候变化特征及突变分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(5):249-254.
[11]杜军,普布卓玛,索朗欧珠.西藏青稞需水关键期降水的气候变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):23-27.
[12]余忠水,唐叔乙,云丹尼玛.1971-2010年雅鲁藏布江中游气候生长期变化特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):338-346.
[13]马鹏飞,杜军,杜晓辉.1981-2014年西藏0℃界限温度变化趋势的时空分布[J].中国农学通报,2016(8):147-153.
[14]杜军,普布卓玛,索朗欧珠.西藏青稞需水关键期降水的气候变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(1):23-27.
[15]杜军,马鹏飞,袁雷.西藏“一江两河”流域油菜需水关键期降水的变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016(3):170-174.
[16]杜军,马鹏飞,杜晓辉,等.气候变化对藏东北牧业生产关键期的影响[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(5):1361-1371.
[17]侯亚红.西藏河谷农区灌水和中后期降雨对高产青稞耗水量与产量的影响[J].农业科学与技术:英文版,2016,17(3):530-534.
[18]杜军,胡军,周保琴,等.西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力对气候变化的响应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(1):141-145.
[19]刘依兰边,巴扎西.西藏林芝地区耕作制度气候区划[J].中国农业气象,1997,18(1):27-29.
[20]韩国军,王玉兰,房世波.近50年青藏高原气候变化及其对农牧业的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1969-1975.
[21]张戈丽,欧阳华,周才平,等.近50年来气候变化对西藏“一江两河”地区农业气候热量资源的影响[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1943-1954.
[22]缪启龙,向毓意,顾显跃.气候变化对西藏环境经济的可能影响[J].应用气象学报,1998(2):225-230.
[23]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].气象出版社,2007:69-70.
[24]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原近50年气温和降水时空变化特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(12):167-172.
[26]林日暖.高原农业气象研究[M].气象出版社,2001:106-109.
[27]罗珍,尼玛卓嘎.西藏青稞种植的农业气候条件分析[J].北京农业,2015(20).
[28]杜军,边多,胡军,等.西藏近35年日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2007,62(5):492-500.