三维插值方法在湖南省气温精细化预报中的应用与检验
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摘要
利用三维插值方法对ECMWF、Japan及T639三种数值模式细网格气温预报产品进行客观订正,并检验评估三维插值方法对湖南省不同海拔高度和不同地理位置上2 159个气象站点的气温预报订正能力。个例结果显示,三维插值方法具有明显的订正效果,不同程度地缩小了二维平面插值预报的偏差,能较客观地反映复杂地形区域要素的实际情况;三维插值方法较二维插值对ECMWF、Japan、T639三种模式气温预报的订正能力均有不同程度的提高,改进后的ECMWF模式气温预报准确率达94%;对于海拔较高的站点,三维插值方法相对于二维插值订正的幅度更大,对模式预报有向气温降低的趋势调整,对于海拔较低的站点,对模式预报有向气温升高的趋势调整。
A three-dimensional interpolation method was applied to objectively modify the refined grid temperature forecast based on the ECMWF,Japan and T639 numerical models,and the temperature forecast modification of the method for 2 159 meteorological stations at different altitudes and different geographical locations in Hunan province was discussed.Compared with two-dimensional interpolation method,the three-dimensional interpolation method presented significant correction effect and reduced the deviation of forecast,which can objectively reflect the actual situation of regional elements of complex terrain.Moreover,the correction performance of the three-dimensional interpolation method for temperature forecast based on ECMWF,Japan and T639 numerical models was improved greatly,and the accuracy rate of temperature forecast based on ECMWF models could reach 94%.The adjusted level was greater for three-dimensional interpolation method than for two-dimensional interpolation method and the temperature forecast based on numerical models was corrected to a negative trend for higher altitude stations,while positive trend for lower altitude stations.
A three-dimensional interpolation method was applied to objectively modify the refined grid temperature forecast based on the ECMWF,Japan and T639 numerical models,and the temperature forecast modification of the method for 2 159 meteorological stations at different altitudes and different geographical locations in Hunan province was discussed.Compared with two-dimensional interpolation method,the three-dimensional interpolation method presented significant correction effect and reduced the deviation of forecast,which can objectively reflect the actual situation of regional elements of complex terrain.Moreover,the correction performance of the three-dimensional interpolation method for temperature forecast based on ECMWF,Japan and T639 numerical models was improved greatly,and the accuracy rate of temperature forecast based on ECMWF models could reach 94%.The adjusted level was greater for three-dimensional interpolation method than for two-dimensional interpolation method and the temperature forecast based on numerical models was corrected to a negative trend for higher altitude stations,while positive trend for lower altitude stations.
引文
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赵金彪,罗建英,何冬燕.2011.基于遗传神经网络的乡镇降水量预报方法试验[J].气象研究与应用,32(1):29-33.Zhao J B,Luo J Y,He D Y.2011.Precipitation forecast test of township based on genetic algorithm neural networks[J].J Meteor Res Appl,32(1):29-33.(in Chinese)
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朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.2007.天气学原理和方法(第四版)[M].北京:气象出版社:398-410.Zhu Q G,L J R,Shou S W,et al.2007.Principles and methods of synoptic meteorology(Fourth Edition)[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press:398-410.(in Chinese)
陈胜东,章开美,彭王敏子,等.2015.NCEP/NCAR再分析资料在江西金华山风资源评估中的应用[J].气象与减灾研究,38(1):53-58.Chen S D,Zhang K M,Peng W M Z,et al.2015.Application of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to the wind resource assessment of Jiangxi Jinhua Mountain[J].Meteor Disaster Redution Res,38(1):53-58.(in Chinese)
程正泉,廖代强.2012.数值天气预报模式产品在预报业务中的应用[J].广东气象,34(4):1-5.Chen Z Q,Liao D Q.2012.Applications of numerical weather prediction model in forecast practices[J].Guangdong Meteor,34(4):1-5.(in Chinese)
梁利,林开平,黄海洪.2012.几种数值预报模式在广西降水预报效果的比较[J].气象研究与应用,33(2):1-4.Liang L,Lin K P,Huang H H.2012.Comparison on precipitation forecast effects of several numerical prediction models in Guangxi[J].J Meteor Res Appl,33(2):1-4.(in Chinese)
刘汉武,王文本,范裕祥,等.2016.基于多模式的巢湖降水集成预报效果检验[J].气象与减灾研究,39(4):283-289.Liu H W,Wang W B,Fan Y X,et al.2016.Validation of precipitation ensemble prediction based on multimodel in Chaohu Lake[J].Meteor Disaster Redution Res,39(4):283-289.(in Chinese)
刘还珠,赵声蓉,陆志善,等.2004.国家气象中心气象要素的客观预报---MOS系统[J].应用气象学报,15(2):181-181.Liu HZ,Zhao S R,Lu Z S,et al.2004.Objective element forecasts at NMC:A MOS system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,15(2):181-181.(in Chinese)
刘抗,李照荣,杨瑞鸿,等.2015.甘肃省乡镇精细化客观要素预报方法研究[J].干旱气象,33(5):882-887.Liu K,Li Z R,Yang RH,et al.2015.Study of refined objective meteorological element forecast method in villages and towns in Gansu[J].Arid Meteor,33(5):882-887.(in Chinese)
罗聪,曾沁,高亭亭,等.2012.精细化逐时滚动温度预报方法及检验[J].热带气象学报,28(4):552-556.Luo C,Ceng Q,Gao TT,et al.2012.Research of seaml ess hourly updated forecast of temperature and verification[J].J Trop Meteor,28(4):552-556.(in Chinese)
潘留杰,张宏芳,陈小婷,等.2015.基于邻域法的高分辨率模式降水的预报能力分析[J].热带气象学报,31(5):632-642.Pan L J,Zhang H F,Chen X T,et al.2015.Neighborhood-based precipitation forecasting capability analysis of high-resolution models[J].J Trop Meteor,31(5):632-642.(in Chinese)
万明,徐星生,陈云辉,等.2015.ECMWF细网格2 m温度在江西省的预报能力检验[J].气象与减灾研究,38(4):67-72.Wan M,Xu X S,Chen Y H,et al.2015.Verification of 2 m temperature prediction ability of ECMWF fine grid model in Jiangxi province in 2014[J].Meteor Disaster Redution Res,38(4):67-72.(in Chinese)
熊敏诠.2016.Delaunay三角剖分法在降水量插值中的应用[J].气象学报,70(6):1390-1400.Xiong M Q.2016.Delaunay triangulated method with an application to the precipitation interpolation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,70(6):1390-1400.(in Chinese)
姚浪,吴姗,王璇,等.2016.T639模式降水预报产品在毕节市的检验和分析[J].气象研究与应用,37(1):30-33.Yao L,Wu S,Wang X,et al.2016.Verification and analysis on T639 model precipitation forecast products of Bijie[J].J Meteor Res Appl,37(1):30-33.(in Chinese)
赵金彪,罗建英,何冬燕.2011.基于遗传神经网络的乡镇降水量预报方法试验[J].气象研究与应用,32(1):29-33.Zhao J B,Luo J Y,He D Y.2011.Precipitation forecast test of township based on genetic algorithm neural networks[J].J Meteor Res Appl,32(1):29-33.(in Chinese)
赵声蓉,赵翠光,赵瑞霞,等.2012.我国精细化客观气象要素预报进展[J].气象科技进展,2(5):12-21.Zhao S R,Zhao C G,Zhao R X,et al.2012.The development of objective meteorological element forecast in China[J].Adv Meteor Sci Technol,2(5):12-21.(in Chinese)
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.2007.天气学原理和方法(第四版)[M].北京:气象出版社:398-410.Zhu Q G,L J R,Shou S W,et al.2007.Principles and methods of synoptic meteorology(Fourth Edition)[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press:398-410.(in Chinese)