GRAPES业务全球集合控制预报初值的动力升尺度方法
|
摘要
以生成GRAPES全球集合预报业务系统的控制预报初值为目的,基于GRAPES全球模式,开展了控制预报初值生成方法研究,发展了高分辨率初值动力升尺度方法,并检验了不同方法的可行性。通过对比不同方法产生的初始场形态,证实了仅仅对高分辨率初始场进行二维水平插值存在不足,基于静力学方程对Exner气压变量进行三维插值至关重要。结果表明,动力升尺度方法利用静力平衡关系,对全场的温压场进行调整,使之协调平衡,可以改善二维水平插值方法导致的初始位势高度场和温度场的噪音问题,产生适用于GRAPES全球集合预报业务系统的控制预报初值。
Aiming to generate the initial fields for the control forecast of the GRAPES global ensemble prediction system,based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)global model,the initial field generation scheme is studied,and a dynamical upscaling technique of the high resolution initial field is developed,and the feasibility of different schemes is verified.By comparing the spatial patterns of the initial fields obtained through different schemes,it is verified that the horizontal interpolation scheme has certain shortcomings,and the three-dimensional interpolation for the Exner pressure variable based on the hydrostatic equation is of great importance.The results show that with the dynamical upscaling technique,the initial geopotential height and temperature noise problems due to the horizontal interpolation scheme can be improved by adjusting the global temperature and pressure fields,so that they are balanced according to the hydrostatic balance relation,and the initial field of low resolution obtained with the dynamical upscaling technique is suitable for the control forecast of the operational GRAPES global ensemble prediction system.
Aiming to generate the initial fields for the control forecast of the GRAPES global ensemble prediction system,based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)global model,the initial field generation scheme is studied,and a dynamical upscaling technique of the high resolution initial field is developed,and the feasibility of different schemes is verified.By comparing the spatial patterns of the initial fields obtained through different schemes,it is verified that the horizontal interpolation scheme has certain shortcomings,and the three-dimensional interpolation for the Exner pressure variable based on the hydrostatic equation is of great importance.The results show that with the dynamical upscaling technique,the initial geopotential height and temperature noise problems due to the horizontal interpolation scheme can be improved by adjusting the global temperature and pressure fields,so that they are balanced according to the hydrostatic balance relation,and the initial field of low resolution obtained with the dynamical upscaling technique is suitable for the control forecast of the operational GRAPES global ensemble prediction system.
引文
[1]薛纪善,陈德辉.数值预报系统GRAPES的科学设计与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:1-383.
[2]沈学顺,苏勇,胡江林,等.GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(1):1-10.
[3]王金成,陆慧娟,韩威,等.GRAPES全球三维变分同化业务系统性能[J].应用气象学报,2017,(1):11-24.
[4]刘永柱,沈学顺,李晓莉.基于总能量模的GRAPES全球模式奇异向量扰动研究[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):517-526.
[5]刘永柱,杨学胜,王洪庆.GRAPES奇异向量研究及其在暴雨集合预报中的应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(2):271-277.
[6]Buizza R,Houtekamer P L,Pellerin G,et al.A comparison of the ECMWF,MSC,and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems[J].Monthly Weather Review,2005,133(5):1076-1097.
[7]麻巨慧,朱跃建,王盘兴,等.NCEP、ECMWF及CMC全球集合预报业务系统发展综述[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(3):370-380.
[8]Zhou X Q,Zhu Y J,Hou D C,et al.A comparison of perturbations from an ensemble transform and an ensemble kalman filter for the NCEP global ensemble forecast system[J].Weather and Forecasting,2016,31(6):2057-2074.
[9]Zhu Y J.NCEP global ensemble forecast system.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/gmb/Doc-5.1.1_EPS_activities_NCEP_GEFS.pdf.
[10]ECMWF.PART V:ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM.IFS Documentation CY43R1,Book Chapter,ECMWF.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/10990000005EEF2E/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/17118-part-vensemble-prediction-system.pdf.
[11]赵平伟,鲁镁,彭贵芬,等.复杂地形区域平均气温空间插值方法研究[J].气象科技,2014,42(6):1002-1008.
[12]沈元芳,丁小良,谢邵成.T63资料同化中分析增量垂直插值方案及其试验[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(4):489-495.
[13]卢强,王云峰,韩月琪.台风DOTSTAR数据在不同垂直插值方案中的误差分析[C]∥第26届中国气象学会年会热带气旋科学研讨会分会场论文集,2009:427-447.
[14]李彦,王丽娜,蒋镇.一种针对气象要素的空间插值算法[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2014,28(6):94-116.
[15]邓爱军,卢敬华.一种数值模式初始场垂直插值方案的误差分析[J].高原气象,1990,9(4):418-423.
[16]陈德辉,王诗文.不同业务预报初值形成方案的数值模拟比较[J].热带气象学报,1996,12(4):356-364.
[17]连治华,薛纪善.一种新的地面气压插值方案在计算低于模式地形的观测相当量中的研究[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(4):489-493.
[18]沈桐立,田永祥,葛孝贞,等.数值天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[19]ECMWF.User guide to ECMWF forecast products.(2015)[2017-03-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/3209000000530B09/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2015/16559-user-guide-ecmwfforecast-products.pdf.
[20]Hortal M,Simmons A J.Use of reduced Gaussian grids in spectral models[J].Monthly Weather Review,1991,119:1057-1074.
[21]ECMWF.Part III:Dynamics and Numerical Procedures.IFS Documentation CY43R1,Book Chapter,ECMWF.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/703900000062AD4F/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/17116-part-iii-dynamics-and-numerical-procedures.pdf.
[22]刘绕,李煜斌,高志球.稻麦轮作农田区大气边界层高度的日变化和季节特征[J].气象科技,2017,45(3):526-534.
[23]赵强,王建鹏,王楠,等.2012年夏季秦巴山区暴雨过程的地形作用诊断[J].气象科技,2017,45(1):140-148.
[24]裘国庆.数值天气预报标准化检验方法[J].气象,1989,15(9):48-50.
[25]WMO.Revised manual on GDPFS.(2015)[2017-05-19].http:∥www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPS/Manual/Tableof-content_Manual-gdpfs.html.
[26]黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):529-536.
[27]曲巧娜,盛春岩,车军辉等.山东省多模式强降水落区预报检验[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):392-399.
[2]沈学顺,苏勇,胡江林,等.GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(1):1-10.
[3]王金成,陆慧娟,韩威,等.GRAPES全球三维变分同化业务系统性能[J].应用气象学报,2017,(1):11-24.
[4]刘永柱,沈学顺,李晓莉.基于总能量模的GRAPES全球模式奇异向量扰动研究[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):517-526.
[5]刘永柱,杨学胜,王洪庆.GRAPES奇异向量研究及其在暴雨集合预报中的应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(2):271-277.
[6]Buizza R,Houtekamer P L,Pellerin G,et al.A comparison of the ECMWF,MSC,and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems[J].Monthly Weather Review,2005,133(5):1076-1097.
[7]麻巨慧,朱跃建,王盘兴,等.NCEP、ECMWF及CMC全球集合预报业务系统发展综述[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(3):370-380.
[8]Zhou X Q,Zhu Y J,Hou D C,et al.A comparison of perturbations from an ensemble transform and an ensemble kalman filter for the NCEP global ensemble forecast system[J].Weather and Forecasting,2016,31(6):2057-2074.
[9]Zhu Y J.NCEP global ensemble forecast system.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/gmb/Doc-5.1.1_EPS_activities_NCEP_GEFS.pdf.
[10]ECMWF.PART V:ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM.IFS Documentation CY43R1,Book Chapter,ECMWF.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/10990000005EEF2E/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/17118-part-vensemble-prediction-system.pdf.
[11]赵平伟,鲁镁,彭贵芬,等.复杂地形区域平均气温空间插值方法研究[J].气象科技,2014,42(6):1002-1008.
[12]沈元芳,丁小良,谢邵成.T63资料同化中分析增量垂直插值方案及其试验[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(4):489-495.
[13]卢强,王云峰,韩月琪.台风DOTSTAR数据在不同垂直插值方案中的误差分析[C]∥第26届中国气象学会年会热带气旋科学研讨会分会场论文集,2009:427-447.
[14]李彦,王丽娜,蒋镇.一种针对气象要素的空间插值算法[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2014,28(6):94-116.
[15]邓爱军,卢敬华.一种数值模式初始场垂直插值方案的误差分析[J].高原气象,1990,9(4):418-423.
[16]陈德辉,王诗文.不同业务预报初值形成方案的数值模拟比较[J].热带气象学报,1996,12(4):356-364.
[17]连治华,薛纪善.一种新的地面气压插值方案在计算低于模式地形的观测相当量中的研究[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(4):489-493.
[18]沈桐立,田永祥,葛孝贞,等.数值天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[19]ECMWF.User guide to ECMWF forecast products.(2015)[2017-03-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/3209000000530B09/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2015/16559-user-guide-ecmwfforecast-products.pdf.
[20]Hortal M,Simmons A J.Use of reduced Gaussian grids in spectral models[J].Monthly Weather Review,1991,119:1057-1074.
[21]ECMWF.Part III:Dynamics and Numerical Procedures.IFS Documentation CY43R1,Book Chapter,ECMWF.(2016)[2017-05-19].http:∥cache1.nmic.cn/files/703900000062AD4F/www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/17116-part-iii-dynamics-and-numerical-procedures.pdf.
[22]刘绕,李煜斌,高志球.稻麦轮作农田区大气边界层高度的日变化和季节特征[J].气象科技,2017,45(3):526-534.
[23]赵强,王建鹏,王楠,等.2012年夏季秦巴山区暴雨过程的地形作用诊断[J].气象科技,2017,45(1):140-148.
[24]裘国庆.数值天气预报标准化检验方法[J].气象,1989,15(9):48-50.
[25]WMO.Revised manual on GDPFS.(2015)[2017-05-19].http:∥www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPS/Manual/Tableof-content_Manual-gdpfs.html.
[26]黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):529-536.
[27]曲巧娜,盛春岩,车军辉等.山东省多模式强降水落区预报检验[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):392-399.