基于熵权物元模型的资源型城市脆弱性评价
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摘要
[目的]测度资源型城市——河北省唐山的城市脆弱性演变状况,为提高唐山和类似资源型城市可持续发展能力提供科学依据。[方法]采用敏感性—应对能力框架,从资源环境、经济和社会三方面构建了城市脆弱性评价指标体系,运用物元分析模型对2000—2014年唐山城市脆弱性开展评价。[结果]研究期间唐山城市脆弱性程度整体呈现下降趋势,警情等级从"向巨警转化"下降为"向无警转化",并分为4个阶段;人均耕地面积、地方财政自给率、城乡平衡指数、资源密集型产业就业比重、第三产业增加值比重、产业结构多样化指数、单位电耗、工业固体废弃物综合利用率、科技支出占地方财政支出比重、第三产业从业人员等仍是制约唐山市脆弱性状况的主要因素。[结论]物元模型可用于城市脆弱性评价。评价结果表明唐山城市脆弱性得到了改善,但未来仍需关注研究的障碍因子。
[Objective]The thesis aimed to evaluate the urban vulnerability evolution of resource-oriented Tangshan City of Hebei Province,and to provide scientific basis for improving the sustainable development ability of Tangshan City and similar resource-oriented cities.[Methods]Based on the framework of sensitivity response capability,the urban vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed from resources,environment,economy and society.Then we introduced matter element analysis model to evaluate the urban vulnerability of Tangshan City from 2000 to 2014.[Results]The overall level of urban vulnerability showed an downward trend in Tangshan City during the study period,the warning degree down from "to the huge warning transformation"to "no warning transformation",and divided into 4 stages.There are still many factors that restrict the vulnerability,including per capita arable land area,the local financial self-sufficiency rate,urban and rural balance index,resource intensive industry employment proportion,the proportion of the added value of industrial structure,the diversity index,unit GDP power consumption,industrial solid waste comprehensive utilization rate,science and technology expenditure of local fiscal expenditure,third industry practitioners and so on.[Conclusion]The matter element analysis model can be applied to urbanvulnerability evaluation.The results show that the urban vulnerability of Tangshan City has been improved,but in the future,obstacle factors still need to be paid attention to.
[Objective]The thesis aimed to evaluate the urban vulnerability evolution of resource-oriented Tangshan City of Hebei Province,and to provide scientific basis for improving the sustainable development ability of Tangshan City and similar resource-oriented cities.[Methods]Based on the framework of sensitivity response capability,the urban vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed from resources,environment,economy and society.Then we introduced matter element analysis model to evaluate the urban vulnerability of Tangshan City from 2000 to 2014.[Results]The overall level of urban vulnerability showed an downward trend in Tangshan City during the study period,the warning degree down from "to the huge warning transformation"to "no warning transformation",and divided into 4 stages.There are still many factors that restrict the vulnerability,including per capita arable land area,the local financial self-sufficiency rate,urban and rural balance index,resource intensive industry employment proportion,the proportion of the added value of industrial structure,the diversity index,unit GDP power consumption,industrial solid waste comprehensive utilization rate,science and technology expenditure of local fiscal expenditure,third industry practitioners and so on.[Conclusion]The matter element analysis model can be applied to urbanvulnerability evaluation.The results show that the urban vulnerability of Tangshan City has been improved,but in the future,obstacle factors still need to be paid attention to.
引文
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[16]杨艳茹,王士君,陈晓红.石油城市经济系统脆弱性动态演变及调控途径研究:以大庆市为例[J].地理科学.2015,35(4):456-563.
[17]赵林,王维,张宇硕,等.东北振兴以来东北地区城市脆弱性时空格局演变[J].经济地理.2014,34(12):69-77.
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[20]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[21]韩瑞玲,佟连军,佟伟铭,等.基于集对分析的鞍山市人地系统脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):344-352.
[22]李博,佟连军,韩增林.东北地区煤炭城市脆弱性与可持续发展模式[J].地理研究,2010,29(2):361-372.
[23]喻忠磊,杨新军,石育中.关中地区城市干旱脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):581-588.
[24]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):967-976.
[25]苏飞,陈媛,张平宇.基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价:以舟山市为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(5):538-544.
[26]Zou Lele,Wei Yiming.Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia[J].Natural Hazards,2009,48(2):167-189.
[27]辛馨,张平宇.基于三角图法的矿业城市人地系统脆弱性分类[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2):284-288.
[28]王岩,方创琳,张蔷.城市脆弱性研究评述与展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):755-768.
[29]蔡文.物元模型及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1994.
[30]韩瑞玲,朱绍华,张秋娈.唐山市经济与环境发展的适应性评价[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(10):2968-2974.
[31]周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.基于变权模型的舟山群岛生态安全预警[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(6):1854-1862.
[32]赵宏波,马延吉.基于变权—物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究:以吉林省为例[J].生态学报.2014,34(16):4720-4733.
[33]金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价:以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[34]张路路,郑新奇,张春晓,等.基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(11):1858-1870.
[2]方创琳,王岩.中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):234-247.
[3]孙平军,修春亮.辽宁矿业城市经济系统应对能力分析与脆弱性评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(4):22-27.
[4]程钰,任建兰,徐成龙.资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性评估:以山东枣庄市为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(3):87-93.
[5]王岩,方创琳.大庆市城市脆弱性综合评价与动态演变研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):547-555.
[6]Sanchez R R,Seto K,Simon D,et al.Vulnerability[R].Bonn:IHDP Report,2005.
[7]徐君,李贵芳,王育红.国内外资源型城市脆弱性研究综述与展望[J].资源科学,2015,37(6):1266-1278.
[8]Turner B L,Kasperson R E,Matson P A,et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J].Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of The America,2003,100(14):8074-8079.
[9]Cutter L S.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress in Human Geography,1996,20(4):529-539.
[10]Hufschmidt G.A comparative analysis of several vulnerability concepts[J].Natural Hazards,2011,58(2):621-643.
[11]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[12]Chang L,Huang S.Assessing urban flooding vulnerability with an emergy approach[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2015,143:11-24.
[13]Mccarthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A,et al.IPCC Climate change2001,Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability[J].Contribution of Working GroupⅡto the Third Assessment Report,2001,19(2):81-111.
[14]史兴民,韩申山,安鹏飞,等.中西部典型资源型城市环境脆弱性评价[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):63-68.
[15]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市社会就业脆弱性分析[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):751-760.
[16]杨艳茹,王士君,陈晓红.石油城市经济系统脆弱性动态演变及调控途径研究:以大庆市为例[J].地理科学.2015,35(4):456-563.
[17]赵林,王维,张宇硕,等.东北振兴以来东北地区城市脆弱性时空格局演变[J].经济地理.2014,34(12):69-77.
[18]Kates R W,Ausubel J H,Berberian M.Climate impact assessment:Studies of the interaction of climate and society[R].ICSU/SCOPE Report 27,John Wiley&Sons,Chichester,1985.
[19]那伟,刘继生.辽源市经济系统的脆弱性及其规避措施研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):666-672.
[20]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[21]韩瑞玲,佟连军,佟伟铭,等.基于集对分析的鞍山市人地系统脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):344-352.
[22]李博,佟连军,韩增林.东北地区煤炭城市脆弱性与可持续发展模式[J].地理研究,2010,29(2):361-372.
[23]喻忠磊,杨新军,石育中.关中地区城市干旱脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):581-588.
[24]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):967-976.
[25]苏飞,陈媛,张平宇.基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价:以舟山市为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(5):538-544.
[26]Zou Lele,Wei Yiming.Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia[J].Natural Hazards,2009,48(2):167-189.
[27]辛馨,张平宇.基于三角图法的矿业城市人地系统脆弱性分类[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2):284-288.
[28]王岩,方创琳,张蔷.城市脆弱性研究评述与展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):755-768.
[29]蔡文.物元模型及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1994.
[30]韩瑞玲,朱绍华,张秋娈.唐山市经济与环境发展的适应性评价[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(10):2968-2974.
[31]周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.基于变权模型的舟山群岛生态安全预警[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(6):1854-1862.
[32]赵宏波,马延吉.基于变权—物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究:以吉林省为例[J].生态学报.2014,34(16):4720-4733.
[33]金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,等.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价:以唐山市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[34]张路路,郑新奇,张春晓,等.基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(11):1858-1870.