基于集对分析的中国海洋经济系统脆弱性研究
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摘要
从海洋经济脆弱性内涵出发,构建敏感性和应对性指标,运用主、客观相结合的组合赋权法确定指标权重,并结合集对分析法,分析1996~2012年中国海洋经济系统脆弱性的演变趋势及影响因素。结果表明:1中国海洋经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,对内、外冲击的应对能力表现出增强趋势,脆弱性不断下降;2运用回归分析法分析海洋经济系统敏感性、应对能力与脆弱性之间的关系,得出应对性的强弱对脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;3提出相应的降低海洋经济脆弱性的对策,包括充分合理利用海洋资源,改变经济增长方式;加强陆海统筹,优化产业结构;推进科学技术创新和人才培养;加强海洋环境保护和污染治理等。
Vulnerability assessment is an important method to reveal the economic development "bottleneck" factors, and has great significance to analyze the major restricted factors to achieve economic development.Based on a detailed description about the vulnerability of marine economic system(MESV), the article establishes a vulnerability assessment model of marine economic system in China from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. Then it combines the methods of set pair analysis and vulnerability assessment, and uses combination weight method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights, then analyzes the evolution trends and major influencing factors of vulnerability in marine economic system from 1996 to 2012. At last, it puts forward corresponding development countermeasures. The results indicate that the vulnerability in marine economic system of China during the past 17 years, shows a declining trend, and the sensitivity to adverse disturbance takes on a declining trend and response capacity sometimes presents a wandering period,sometimes in a growth phase for internal and external shocks. The MESV has two characteristics: 1) the MESV declined rapidly in 1996-2001, 2005-2006, and 2008-2010; 2) the MESV showed little change, more stable in 2001-2005, 2006-2008, and 2010-2012. The evolution of sensitivity can be divided into two stages:decreased obviously form 1996 to 2002, fluctuating frequented from 2002 to 2012. The evolution of response capacity fluctuated slightly in 1996-2002 and 2008-2012, and then went up steadily from 2002 to 2012. The influence of sensitivity plays a leading role to the vulnerability in marine economic system of China among the sensitivity, response capacity and vulnerability by using regression analysis. It suggests that in improving response capacity and reducing the vulnerability in marine economic system of China, the style of economic growth should be changed, including controlling over-exploitation and rational utilization of marine resources,developing science and technology and cultivation of talents. At the same time, it is also important to strengthen marine of pollution and to control environmental protection measures.
Vulnerability assessment is an important method to reveal the economic development "bottleneck" factors, and has great significance to analyze the major restricted factors to achieve economic development.Based on a detailed description about the vulnerability of marine economic system(MESV), the article establishes a vulnerability assessment model of marine economic system in China from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. Then it combines the methods of set pair analysis and vulnerability assessment, and uses combination weight method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights, then analyzes the evolution trends and major influencing factors of vulnerability in marine economic system from 1996 to 2012. At last, it puts forward corresponding development countermeasures. The results indicate that the vulnerability in marine economic system of China during the past 17 years, shows a declining trend, and the sensitivity to adverse disturbance takes on a declining trend and response capacity sometimes presents a wandering period,sometimes in a growth phase for internal and external shocks. The MESV has two characteristics: 1) the MESV declined rapidly in 1996-2001, 2005-2006, and 2008-2010; 2) the MESV showed little change, more stable in 2001-2005, 2006-2008, and 2010-2012. The evolution of sensitivity can be divided into two stages:decreased obviously form 1996 to 2002, fluctuating frequented from 2002 to 2012. The evolution of response capacity fluctuated slightly in 1996-2002 and 2008-2012, and then went up steadily from 2002 to 2012. The influence of sensitivity plays a leading role to the vulnerability in marine economic system of China among the sensitivity, response capacity and vulnerability by using regression analysis. It suggests that in improving response capacity and reducing the vulnerability in marine economic system of China, the style of economic growth should be changed, including controlling over-exploitation and rational utilization of marine resources,developing science and technology and cultivation of talents. At the same time, it is also important to strengthen marine of pollution and to control environmental protection measures.
引文
[1]韩增林,李博.中国沿海地区人海关系地域系统脆弱性研究进展[J].海洋经济,2013,3(2):1-6.[Han Zenglin,Li Bo.Review on vulnerability in the human-sea territorial system of coastal cities in China.Marine Economy,2013,3(2):1-6.]
[2]殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,等.风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1155-1160.[Yin Jie,Yin Zhan′e,Yu Dapeng,et al.Vulnerability analysis for storm induced flood:A case study of Huangpu River basin.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(9):1155-1160.]
[3]石先武,谭骏,国志兴,等.风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2013,28(8):866-874.[Shi Xianwu,Tan Jun,Guo Zhixing,et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge disaster.Advances in Earth Science,2013,28(8):866-874.]
[4]狄乾斌,韩增林,刘锴.海域承载力研究的若干问题[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(5):50-54.[Di Qianbin,Han Zenglin,Liu Kai.Some questions of research on carrying capacity of marine space.Geography and Geo-Information Science,2004,20(5):50-54.]
[5]周健,王其翔,刘洪军,等.海域承载力研究进展[J].海岸工程,2013,32(3):59-67.[Zhou Jian,Wang Qixiang,Liu Hongjun,et al.Advances carrying capacity of marine region.Coastal Engineering,2013,32(3):59-67.]
[6]朱坚真,刘汉斌.中国海洋经济安全监测指标体系研究[J].太平洋学报,2013,21(1):86-93.[Zhu Jianzhen,Liu Hanbin.Exploring the monitoring index system for measuring China’s marine economic security.Pacific Journal,2013,21(1):86-93.]
[7]刘明.影响我国海洋经济可持续发展的重大问题分析[J].宏观经济研究,2010,(5):34-38.[Liu Ming.Analysis of major issues affecting the sustainable development of marine economy in China.Macroeconomics,2010,(5):34-38.]
[8]张耀光,胡新华,高辛萍.中国海洋经济高新技术的“瓶颈”制约及对策[J].人文地理,2002,17(3):90-92.[Zhang Yaoguang,Hu Xinhua,Gao Xinping.The“Bottleneck”restriction and countermeasure of high new-technology of marine economy in China.Human Geography,2002,17(3):90-92.]
[9]Janssen M A,Schoon M L,Ke W M et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation with in the human dimensions of global environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
[10]苏飞,陈媛,张平宇.基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(5):538-544.[Su Fei,Chen Yuan,Zhang Pingyu.Vulnerability assessment of tourism city's economic system based on the set pair analysis:A case study of Zhoushan city.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(5):538-544.]
[11]解垩.中国老年家庭的经济脆弱性与贫困[J].人口与发展,2014,20(2):67-75.[Xie E.Economic vulnerability and poverty of elderly in China.Population and Development,2014,20(2):67-75.]
[12]李博,韩增林.基于三角图法的沿海城市系统脆弱性分类方法研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2011,(11):99-102.[Li Bo,Han Zenglin.Vulnerability classification in human-sea territorial system of costal cities:Based on triangle methodology.Ocean Development and Management,2011,(11):99-102.]
[13]郭永杰,米文宝,赵莹,等.基于集对分析的宁夏限制开发生态区经济脆弱性评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,25(2):49-53.[Guo Yongjie,Mi Wenbao,Zhao Ying,et al.The evaluation on economic system vulnerability of limited developing ecological zones in Ningxia.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,25(2):49-53.]
[14]储毓婷,苏飞.国内外经济脆弱性研究述评[J].生态经济,2013,(2):122-125.[Chu Yuting,Su Fei.Progress of economic vulnerability at home and abroad.Ecological Economy,2013,(2):122-125.]
[15]Adrianto L,Matsuda Y.Developing economic vulnerability indices of environmental disasters in small island regions[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2002,22(4):393-414.
[16]Adrianto L,Yoshiaki Matsuda.Study on assessing economic vulnerability of small island regions[J].Environment,Development and Sustainability,2004,6(3):317-336.
[17]Guillaumont P.An economic vulnerability index:It's design and use for international development policy[J].Oxford Development Studies,2009,37(3):193-228.
[18]Guillaumont P.Assessing the economic vulnerability of Small island developing states and the least developed countries[J].Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(5):828-854.
[19]Scott D,Dawson J,Jones B.Climate change vulnerability of the US northeast winter recreation-tourism sector[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2008,13(5):577-596.
[20]杨林,李渊.海洋灾害脆弱性综合评价指标体系的设计[J].海洋技术,2013,32(3):133-137.[Yang Lin,Li Yuan.Design of marine disaster vulnerability evaluation index system.Ocean Technology,2013,32(3):133-137.]
[21]赵昕,肖凡.沿海地区经济系统海洋灾害脆弱性评价研究——以山东省台风灾害为例[J].海洋经济,2013,3(3):21-25.[Zhao Xin,Xiao Fan.Evaluation research about the marine disaster vulnerability of coastal areas-In the case of the typhoon disasters in Shandong province.Marine Economy,2013,3(3):21-25.]
[22]赵国杰,张炜熙.海岸带社会经济脆弱性研究[J].统计与决策,2006,(3):12-14.[Zhao guojie,Zhang weixi.Coastal socio-economic vulnerability research.Statistics and Decision,2006,(3):12-14.]
[23]李晓琴,张炜熙.海洋经济脆弱性的研究综述[J].海洋经济,2014,4(1):44-49.[Li Xiaoqin,Zhang Weixi.Research on the vulnerability of marine economy.Marine Economy,2014,4(1):44-49.]
[24]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.[Li He,Zhang Pingyu,Cheng Yeqing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability.Progress in Geography,2008,27(2):18-25.]
[25]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[Z].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2013.[State Oceanic Administration,Peoples Republic of China.China Oceanographic Statistical Yearbook(1997-2013).Beijing:China Ocean Press,1997-2013.]
[26]王泽宇,郭萌雨,韩增林.基于集对分析的海洋综合实力评价研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(2):351-360.[Wang Zeyu,Guo Mengyu,Han Zenglin.Evaluation of marine comprehensive strength based on set pair analysis.Resources Science,2014,36(2):351-360.]
[27]吴开亚,金菊良.区域生态安全评价的熵组合权重属性识别模型[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):754-758.[Wu Kaiya,Jin Juliang.Attribute recognition method of regional ecological security evaluation based on combined weight on principle of relative entropy.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2008,28(6):754-758.]
[28]丁圆婷,于吉涛,宋鄂平.基于AHP-GA的地质旅游资源评价研究[J].湖北民族学院学报,2014,32(2):230-236.[Ding Yuanting,Yu Jitao,Song Eping.Study on geological tourism resources evaluation based on AHP and GA.Journal of Hubei University for Nationalities Natural Science Edition,2014,32(2):230-236.]
[29]李博.辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2014,34(6):711-716.[Li Bo.Vulnerability in human-sea economic system of Liaoning coastal area in China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(6):711-716.]
[30]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索,1994,13(47):67-72.[Zhao Keqin.Set pair analysis and its preliminary application.Exploration of Nature,1994,13(47):67-72.]
[31]李锋.基于集对分析法(SPA)的中国旅游经济系统脆弱性测度研究[J].旅游科学,2013,27(1):17-28.[Li Feng.Study of vulnerability measurement of Chinese tourism economic system:Based on SPA.Tourism Science,2013,27(1):15-28.]
[32]韩瑞玲,佟连军,佟伟铭,等.基于集对分析的鞍山市人地系统脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):343-352.[Han Ruiling,Tong Lianjun,Tong Weiming,et al.Research on vulnerability assessment of human-land system of Anshan city based on set pair analysis.Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):343-352.]
[2]殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,等.风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1155-1160.[Yin Jie,Yin Zhan′e,Yu Dapeng,et al.Vulnerability analysis for storm induced flood:A case study of Huangpu River basin.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(9):1155-1160.]
[3]石先武,谭骏,国志兴,等.风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2013,28(8):866-874.[Shi Xianwu,Tan Jun,Guo Zhixing,et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge disaster.Advances in Earth Science,2013,28(8):866-874.]
[4]狄乾斌,韩增林,刘锴.海域承载力研究的若干问题[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(5):50-54.[Di Qianbin,Han Zenglin,Liu Kai.Some questions of research on carrying capacity of marine space.Geography and Geo-Information Science,2004,20(5):50-54.]
[5]周健,王其翔,刘洪军,等.海域承载力研究进展[J].海岸工程,2013,32(3):59-67.[Zhou Jian,Wang Qixiang,Liu Hongjun,et al.Advances carrying capacity of marine region.Coastal Engineering,2013,32(3):59-67.]
[6]朱坚真,刘汉斌.中国海洋经济安全监测指标体系研究[J].太平洋学报,2013,21(1):86-93.[Zhu Jianzhen,Liu Hanbin.Exploring the monitoring index system for measuring China’s marine economic security.Pacific Journal,2013,21(1):86-93.]
[7]刘明.影响我国海洋经济可持续发展的重大问题分析[J].宏观经济研究,2010,(5):34-38.[Liu Ming.Analysis of major issues affecting the sustainable development of marine economy in China.Macroeconomics,2010,(5):34-38.]
[8]张耀光,胡新华,高辛萍.中国海洋经济高新技术的“瓶颈”制约及对策[J].人文地理,2002,17(3):90-92.[Zhang Yaoguang,Hu Xinhua,Gao Xinping.The“Bottleneck”restriction and countermeasure of high new-technology of marine economy in China.Human Geography,2002,17(3):90-92.]
[9]Janssen M A,Schoon M L,Ke W M et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation with in the human dimensions of global environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
[10]苏飞,陈媛,张平宇.基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(5):538-544.[Su Fei,Chen Yuan,Zhang Pingyu.Vulnerability assessment of tourism city's economic system based on the set pair analysis:A case study of Zhoushan city.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(5):538-544.]
[11]解垩.中国老年家庭的经济脆弱性与贫困[J].人口与发展,2014,20(2):67-75.[Xie E.Economic vulnerability and poverty of elderly in China.Population and Development,2014,20(2):67-75.]
[12]李博,韩增林.基于三角图法的沿海城市系统脆弱性分类方法研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2011,(11):99-102.[Li Bo,Han Zenglin.Vulnerability classification in human-sea territorial system of costal cities:Based on triangle methodology.Ocean Development and Management,2011,(11):99-102.]
[13]郭永杰,米文宝,赵莹,等.基于集对分析的宁夏限制开发生态区经济脆弱性评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,25(2):49-53.[Guo Yongjie,Mi Wenbao,Zhao Ying,et al.The evaluation on economic system vulnerability of limited developing ecological zones in Ningxia.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,25(2):49-53.]
[14]储毓婷,苏飞.国内外经济脆弱性研究述评[J].生态经济,2013,(2):122-125.[Chu Yuting,Su Fei.Progress of economic vulnerability at home and abroad.Ecological Economy,2013,(2):122-125.]
[15]Adrianto L,Matsuda Y.Developing economic vulnerability indices of environmental disasters in small island regions[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2002,22(4):393-414.
[16]Adrianto L,Yoshiaki Matsuda.Study on assessing economic vulnerability of small island regions[J].Environment,Development and Sustainability,2004,6(3):317-336.
[17]Guillaumont P.An economic vulnerability index:It's design and use for international development policy[J].Oxford Development Studies,2009,37(3):193-228.
[18]Guillaumont P.Assessing the economic vulnerability of Small island developing states and the least developed countries[J].Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(5):828-854.
[19]Scott D,Dawson J,Jones B.Climate change vulnerability of the US northeast winter recreation-tourism sector[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2008,13(5):577-596.
[20]杨林,李渊.海洋灾害脆弱性综合评价指标体系的设计[J].海洋技术,2013,32(3):133-137.[Yang Lin,Li Yuan.Design of marine disaster vulnerability evaluation index system.Ocean Technology,2013,32(3):133-137.]
[21]赵昕,肖凡.沿海地区经济系统海洋灾害脆弱性评价研究——以山东省台风灾害为例[J].海洋经济,2013,3(3):21-25.[Zhao Xin,Xiao Fan.Evaluation research about the marine disaster vulnerability of coastal areas-In the case of the typhoon disasters in Shandong province.Marine Economy,2013,3(3):21-25.]
[22]赵国杰,张炜熙.海岸带社会经济脆弱性研究[J].统计与决策,2006,(3):12-14.[Zhao guojie,Zhang weixi.Coastal socio-economic vulnerability research.Statistics and Decision,2006,(3):12-14.]
[23]李晓琴,张炜熙.海洋经济脆弱性的研究综述[J].海洋经济,2014,4(1):44-49.[Li Xiaoqin,Zhang Weixi.Research on the vulnerability of marine economy.Marine Economy,2014,4(1):44-49.]
[24]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.[Li He,Zhang Pingyu,Cheng Yeqing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability.Progress in Geography,2008,27(2):18-25.]
[25]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[Z].北京:海洋出版社,1997-2013.[State Oceanic Administration,Peoples Republic of China.China Oceanographic Statistical Yearbook(1997-2013).Beijing:China Ocean Press,1997-2013.]
[26]王泽宇,郭萌雨,韩增林.基于集对分析的海洋综合实力评价研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(2):351-360.[Wang Zeyu,Guo Mengyu,Han Zenglin.Evaluation of marine comprehensive strength based on set pair analysis.Resources Science,2014,36(2):351-360.]
[27]吴开亚,金菊良.区域生态安全评价的熵组合权重属性识别模型[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):754-758.[Wu Kaiya,Jin Juliang.Attribute recognition method of regional ecological security evaluation based on combined weight on principle of relative entropy.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2008,28(6):754-758.]
[28]丁圆婷,于吉涛,宋鄂平.基于AHP-GA的地质旅游资源评价研究[J].湖北民族学院学报,2014,32(2):230-236.[Ding Yuanting,Yu Jitao,Song Eping.Study on geological tourism resources evaluation based on AHP and GA.Journal of Hubei University for Nationalities Natural Science Edition,2014,32(2):230-236.]
[29]李博.辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2014,34(6):711-716.[Li Bo.Vulnerability in human-sea economic system of Liaoning coastal area in China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(6):711-716.]
[30]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索,1994,13(47):67-72.[Zhao Keqin.Set pair analysis and its preliminary application.Exploration of Nature,1994,13(47):67-72.]
[31]李锋.基于集对分析法(SPA)的中国旅游经济系统脆弱性测度研究[J].旅游科学,2013,27(1):17-28.[Li Feng.Study of vulnerability measurement of Chinese tourism economic system:Based on SPA.Tourism Science,2013,27(1):15-28.]
[32]韩瑞玲,佟连军,佟伟铭,等.基于集对分析的鞍山市人地系统脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):343-352.[Han Ruiling,Tong Lianjun,Tong Weiming,et al.Research on vulnerability assessment of human-land system of Anshan city based on set pair analysis.Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):343-352.]