基于三角模糊数学与事故树分析法的压力管道爆炸研究
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摘要
由于各种原因压力管道爆炸事故频发,为了保障人民生命财产安全,有效预防油气运输过程中压力管道爆炸事故的发生,通过三角模糊理论把事故树基本事件发生的概率、逻辑门的运算法则、基本事件的重要度三角模糊化,将三角模糊数学和事故树相结合,绘制压力容器爆炸事故树图,计算得出顶上事件发生概率的分布范围,确定了基本事件模糊重要度排序。根据计算结果得知,提高压力容器管道系统的可靠性、防止压力管道发生爆炸,需要优先处理的基本事件是人为破坏、管道附近电线绝缘层老化、控制室线路电流过大、控制管道的阀门密封不良、管道法兰密封不良、操作不规范。根据基本事件的模糊重要度,提出了事故的防范措施。
Explosion accidents of pressure pipes occurred frequently in recent years.In order to ensure the safety of people's lives and property and effectively prevent pressure pipeline explosion accidents in the process of oil and gas transportation,this paper uses the triangular fuzzy theory to obscure the probability of the basic event of the fault tree,the logical algorithm,and the significance of the basic event in triangle.Via combination of triangle fuzzy mathematics with fault tree,apressure vessel fault tree chart has been made so as to calculate the distribution range of top-tiered event probability and determine the order of basic event fuzzy importance.According to the calculation,the priorities of the basic events to improve the reliability of the pressure vessel piping system and prevent the explosion accident of the pressure piping are as follows:man-made destruction,aging of the insulation layer of wires near the piping,excessive current in the control room,poor valve seal of the control piping,poor flange seal of the piping and non-standard operation.In light of the fuzzy importance of basic events,the preventive measures of accidents are put forward.
Explosion accidents of pressure pipes occurred frequently in recent years.In order to ensure the safety of people's lives and property and effectively prevent pressure pipeline explosion accidents in the process of oil and gas transportation,this paper uses the triangular fuzzy theory to obscure the probability of the basic event of the fault tree,the logical algorithm,and the significance of the basic event in triangle.Via combination of triangle fuzzy mathematics with fault tree,apressure vessel fault tree chart has been made so as to calculate the distribution range of top-tiered event probability and determine the order of basic event fuzzy importance.According to the calculation,the priorities of the basic events to improve the reliability of the pressure vessel piping system and prevent the explosion accident of the pressure piping are as follows:man-made destruction,aging of the insulation layer of wires near the piping,excessive current in the control room,poor valve seal of the control piping,poor flange seal of the piping and non-standard operation.In light of the fuzzy importance of basic events,the preventive measures of accidents are put forward.
引文
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[3]张悦,石超,方来华.基于FMEA和HAZOP的综合分析方法及应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):146-150.
[4]张园园,刘晓培,史美静.小区间浴盆形火灾事故预测[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2018,38(3):84-88.
[5]张园园,张巨伟,赵斌.安全领域不相容问题的数学分析[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2018,38(1):55-59.
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